Outlook:
The barrage of Bush-Cheney ads against the prospective Democratic nominee, Sen. John Kerry (Mass.), has not cut in yet to halt the negative tide against President George W. Bush.
1) Kerry is now clearly in the lead in the Electoral College race, and Republican morale is slipping. There is now little doubt that Kerry would win the election if it were held today. The consolation for the Republicans is that a long campaign impends in which many things will happen.
2) The latest blow to Bush was the coordinated attack on his anti-terrorist policy - considered the strong point of his candidacy (see below). Publication of former anti-terrorism chief Richard Clarke's book attacking Bush for not taking steps to prevent 9-11 was advanced to coincide with his testimony to the Kean commission.
The White House riposted with attacks on Clarke, who previously had been quoted as also attacking the Clinton Administration for being insufficiently aggressive in going after Osama bin Laden. Clarke is described as a failed suitor for a top job in the Department of Homeland security. But once again, the Bush team looks a day late and a dollar short.
3) Republican morale is dropping precipitately. Panic is started to kick in about prospects for retaining control of the Senate, and there is even some concern about losing House seats. The speech to the House Republican Conference by House Majority Leader Tom DeLay (R.-Tex.), which was supposed to tighten and strengthen the Republican agenda, turned out to be an unappetizing rehash.
4) The concerns about the Republican base continue. The Medicare drug prescription bill, crafted by the White House and the congressional Republican leadership, now is shaping up as a political disaster with Bush accused of falsifying its massive price tag. Designed to give short-term political pleasure at the cost of long-term pain, there is now also short-term pain apparent.
5) On the other side, the flaws in Kerry as a candidate have quickly appeared. Even though it is Bush who has been in decline, it is Kerry who has been making the mistakes. He has not yet adjusted to being a general election candidate, as contrasted with a primary election candidate. The Dick Clarke furor now dwarfs everything, but Kerry sustained his first bad publicity in months by claiming support from foreign leaders and then backing away from it.
Kerry has been at his best when running from behind, as in his 1996 re-election campaign against then Gov. William Weld (R.) and his Iowa caucus campaign this year. He is less impressive when running ahead, as is the case now.
6) In sum, Bush is still back on his heels and ineffective. The White House political team under Karl Rove, which had been lavishly praised for its efficiency, is now blasted by Republicans for consistently being outflanked and unable to take the initiative.
9/11 Commission:
Madrid bombings, the new stage in the presidential campaign and book sales have added drama to this week's hearings on intelligence, diplomatic and military failures leading up to the terrorist attacks of September 11.
1) The bipartisan panel formed by Congress to investigate how 9/11 happened began its public hearings last week in the midst of a media abuzz over harsh criticism of the current administration by Clarke, a top counter-terrorism official in the Bush and Clinton Administrations.
2) Clarke has timed the beginning of his book tour to coincide with the panel hearings. His book and his television appearances make the case that the Bush Administration is to blame for the 9/11 attacks that left 3,000 dead in New York and Washington, D.C.
3) This is an important part of the Democratic campaign to unseat President Bush. Democrats have begun to realize that if Americans feel threatened by terrorism, any dissatisfaction with the economy will be subordinate in voters' minds to concerns about national security.
4) Republicans, since World War II, have been far more trusted on national security. Bush is seen as strong on the issue, having handily won wars in Afghanistan and Iraq and getting credit for preventing any terrorist attack in the U.S. since 9/11.
This is why Democrats need to make the case that Bush is incompetent in national security, and could have prevented 9/11. This is the point of the Clarke book and the Democratic spinning coming out of the hearings. Meanwhile, Republicans make the point that the Clinton Administration had eight years to do something about al Qaeda and bin Laden, while the Bush White House had less than eight months.
