Electoral College:
Kerry 286, Bush 252 - In our last issue, we saw President George W. Bush carrying 30 states and 279 electoral votes. If the election were held today, however, John Kerry’s Super Tuesday bounce has sprung him into the lead, tipping the Sunshine State in his favor.
Florida (27): A media poll last week shows Kerry trouncing President Bush 49 to 43 here, with Ralph Nader pulling in 3%. The same survey shows Bush getting a “disapproval†rating from 49% of respondents, compared to his 47% approval rating. Bush has made recent plays for Cuban voters here, but Kerry is riding high and this swing state is getting on board. Kerry must come down at some point, but if the election were held today, he would carry this state and thus the election. Leaning Kerry.
Oregon (7): A recent poll confirms that Kerry has the edge here, 45 to 40. Leaning Kerry. Illinois Senate:
Investment banker Blair Hull (D.) was wounded by the disclosure of his divorce settlement, casting him in an unfavorable light and suggesting abuse. His reaction, attacking his (second) wife, did not help. State Sen. Barak Obama (D.) now leads in the latest poll, posting 28%. State Comptroller Dan Hynes (D.), once considered the favorite, is mired in third place, four points behind Hull’s percent. Cook County Treasurer Maria Pappas (D.) is in third with 11%. Daley machine cog Gery Chico (D.), Radio host Nancy Skinner (D.) and health care executive Joyce Washington (D.) pull in a combined 8% while 14% remain undecided. Obama, a black liberal, has surged as Hull has fallen. He is hitting his stride at the right moment. The field is mixed, but Obama, with a strong grip on liberal and black voters, is the slight favorite. Leaning Obama. Millionaire-turned-inner-city-teacher Jack Ryan (R.) is pulling away in GOP polls. Ryan’s biggest negatives are his lack of platform skills and his sharing the same name as disgraced former Gov. George Ryan (R.) and failed 2002 governor-candidate Jim Ryan (R.). Dairy company owner Jim Oberweis (R.) is a distant second place, while paper company executive Andy McKenna (R.) comes in third. Expect a late surge from State Sen. Steve Rauschenberger (R.), who is earning conservative backing lately. Any one of these might be able to beat Ryan alone, but not in a crowded field. It would take quite a surge at this point for anyone to overcome the frontrunner and his saturation of the airwaves. Likely Ryan. Top U.S. Senate Races:
Democrats have added one more state to their target list now that Sen. Ben Nighthorse Campbell (R.-Colo.) will not seek another term. The open seat in Oklahoma has become more exciting with the entrance of former Rep. Tom Coburn (R.) into the race. Republicans hold a 51-to-49 majority in the Senate (counting independent Sen. James Jeffords [Vt.] as a Democrat), so a net pickup of two seats would give Democrats the majority. (A gain of one seat could flip control of the Senate if Kerry beats Bush.) While the odds still favor small Republican gains, each passing week makes things look better for the Democrats. The 2004 Senate picture no longer looks like a completely sunny one for Republicans. This week, of the 10 most highly contested Senate races, four are for seats currently held by the GOP, the other six for Democratic seats. Republicans +1 and continued Senate control, 52-48.
Alaska: Recent Democrat polls show appointed Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R.) trailing former Gov. Tony Knowles (D.) by a small margin. This proves that the race is very close, but probably overstates Knowles’ strength. Twice elected governor, Knowles is clearly the best the Democrats have to offer, but he has never won a majority. Both of his victories came against a fractured GOP. This year, while party unity is not at its highest, Murkowski looks likely to avoid a challenge from the right, despite her less-than conservative voting record. She has surprised critics in her first fourteen months, scoring some legislative successes and generally conducting herself well. Her father, Gov. Frank Murkowski (R.), has not fared as well, but she has succeeded in establishing her own identity separate from her father, predecessor and appointer. President Bush atop the ticket helps Murkowski. Perhaps even more important, Sen. Kerry (D.-Mass.), one of the most dedicated opponents of drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR), tops the Democratic ticket. To Kerry, ANWR represents spoiling pristine environment, to Alaskans, drilling there represents jobs and creating value out of a frozen wasteland. All the cards would need to be in place for a Democrat to win in Alaska. Leaning Republican Retention.
Colorado: Republicans suffer a big blow in Colorado, as Sen. Ben Nighthorse Campbell (R.), calls it quits, and Gov. Bill Owens (R.) has declined to throw his hat in the ring. Despite the fact that Republicans now control both Senate seats, five of seven congressional seats, both legislative chambers and the governorship, Colorado is fairly evenly split state. Bush barely won a majority here in 2000, and Sen. Wayne Allard (R.) needed a last-minute comeback to win reelection in 2002. Bush is likely to win Colorado again, probably with a more comfortable lead, but that will provide minimal help to the Republican. Whichever party fields the better candidate who runs the better race will be the favorite. In this race where recruiting has rarely been more important, the field is still developing on both sides. State Republicans are still holding their breath, hoping for Owens to throw his hat in the ring. If Owens runs, he could clear the GOP field and would be the favorite in November. If Owens decides to fill out his term as governor instead, as our Washington sources say he has, a pile-on will ensue. Almost the entire GOP congressional delegation is considering running. Retiring Rep. Scott McInnis is weighing his options. He may decide instead to cash out, take a lobbying job and then run for governor in two years. McInnis, though, has eyed a Senate run for a while, but abandoned those aspirations recently and set his eye on the governorship. He says he’s sick of Washington, but this opportunity, with $1.3 million in his campaign coffers, might be too good to pass up. Rep. Marilyn Musgrave (R.) toyed with the idea of a run, but probably will back down. Fiery Rep. Tom Tancredo (R.) is also making noise, but he would be a dark horse, and he realizes that. Freshman Rep. Bob Beauprez (R.) has many friends lining up behind him, but leaving vacant the tightest House seat in the country would not be in the best interest of the party. Rep. Mark Udall (D.) had been considering a challenge to Campbell, but opted to stay in the House. Udall convinced millionaire activist Rutt Bridges (D.) to run. Before Campbell’s decision to drop out, Bridges was the Democrat front-runner, with former diplomat Mike Miles (D.) his chief competition. With Campbell out, Udall wants back in, and declares himself the strongest Democrat in the state. Washington Democrats, however, would rather have self-funder Bridges as their man. Rep. Diana DeGette (D.) is also eyeing a run. DeGette, a staunch liberal, could win as the only women in a crowded primary field. Finally, there is Atty. Gen. Ken Salazar (D.). Salazar rebuffed early Democratic advances to challenge Campbell, instead setting his sights on an ’08 governor run. Now, Salazar is considering jumping in. Without Owens, it’s a free-for-all on both sides of the aisle and a nearly toss-up election. Leaning Democratic Takeover.
Florida: Things could hardly be more muddled in Florida in the battle to replace retiring Sen. Bob Graham (D.). The fields on both sides are crowded and the polls are fluctuating looking ahead to the August 10 primaries. On the Republican side, former Housing Secretary Mel Martinez (R.) hardly cleared the field in the way the White House had hoped. Martinez generally runs second in polls behind former Rep. Bill McCollum (R.), who lost his Senate race in 2000. State House Speaker Johnnie Byrd (R.) and State Sen. Daniel Webster (R.) mix up the picture. Dot-com executive Doug Gallagher (R.) and former New Hampshire Sen. Bob Smith (R.) are also running, as are conservative activist lawyer Larry Klayman (R.) and educational consultant Gwyn McClellan (R.). In such a crowded field, McCollum, with the best statewide name i.d. is the favorite. Gov. Jeb Bush (R.) is unwilling to push Byrd or Webster out, and Smith and Klayman are famously loose cannons. The Democratic field is currently three deep. Rep. Peter Deutsch (D.) and Miami-Dade Mayor Alex Penelas (D.) are basically tied for second in most polls, while former State Sen. Betty Castor (D.) is at the top of all recent survey. In a Castor-v-McCollum match-up, the most likely pairing at this point, the edge goes to Castor. But this state will be a battleground for the presidential run, and things here will change quite a bit in coming months. Leaning Democratic Retention.
Georgia: This is the strongest chance either party has for a takeover, but a possibly ugly GOP primary must come first. Democrats have no top-tier candidates. Their hopes now are State senators Mary Squires (D.) and Nadine Thomas (D.). Neither would be a strong general election candidate. Republicans have a three-way battle featuring two conservatives…quot;pizza magnate Herman Cain (R.) and Rep. Mac Collins (R.)…quot;and moderate Rep. Johnny Isakson (R.). Isakson is the clear frontrunner, and conservatives just hope that Collins and Cain can combine to hold Isakson under 50% to force a runoff. Whoever wins the GOP primary should win in November. Likely Republican Takeover.
