Nader:
The entrance of regulatory champion Ralph Nader as a third-party candidate cannot be good news for the Democrats, but it is hardly as disastrous as it at first seems.
1) Historically, outsider challengers have trouble putting on a good second act. Billionaire Ross Perot in 1996 was far less significant, and conservative pundit Pat Buchanan in 2000 was a shadow of his 1992 and 1996 self.
2) The left's antipathy towards Bush is far more focused than it ever could have been before he took office. It is harder for liberal voters to tell themselves that there is no difference between the two parties.
3) The Democratic primaries have been more satisfying for liberals than they were in 2000. Four years ago, Gore, the establishment candidate and lieutenant to "Third-Way" President Bill Clinton, steamrolled liberal upstart former Sen. Bill Bradley (N.J.). This year, there was little tacking to the right or appearance of top-down anointment for either Kerry or Edwards.
4) In the toughest states for Bush to hold onto-Ohio, Tennessee and Arkansas-the votes in play will be culturally conservative Democrats upset over job loss. These states do not have high liberal populations.
5) Nader's strongholds, for the most part, are solid Democrat. Bush cannot win Massachusetts, New York, Connecticut, Vermont, California or Maryland. He cannot lose Colorado.
6) The Nader factor could come into play in Wisconsin, Oregon, Minnesota and perhaps Florida, but only if those states are already extremely close.
7) Former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean and Rep. Dennis Kucinich (Ohio) have been the two most visible faces of the far left for the past year. They both are ready to line up solidly behind the Democratic nominee, and they should be able to bring with them a good chunk of their support bases-drawing from Nader's base.
Transportation Bill:
President Bush is in a dispute with House Speaker Dennis Hastert (R.-Ill.) and at odds with most Republicans on the Hill over the transportation bill.
1) In the light of broad and continuing conservative discontent, Bush has been looking hard for a bill to veto. The highway bill provided a choice target. Although no worse on the Treasury than many bills he has signed, it has had a gas tax hike attached to it in some versions, and highway pork is an easy target rhetorically.
2) But more than two-thirds of the Senate approved their version of the bill, which comes in at $62 billion over the President's request (itself $38 billion larger than current law). The House bill is even larger.
3) Conservatives, led by Rep. Chris Cox (R.-Calif.), are trying to round up enough signatures in the House to guarantee they could sustain Bush's veto. If the bill is vetoed at its current House level of $375 billion they can succeed. At $318 billion it may be harder.
4) Hastert does not want to put his Republicans in a tough position by highlighting the largesse of the bill. If Bush vetoes it as waste, the override vote would be a no-win choice between deficit-time profligacy (voting to override), and taking party line over district interests (voting to sustain).
5) The dispute springs from the lack of any genuine fiscal conservatism, either within the House GOP conference or at the White House. For many conservatives, road money (especially paid for by a gas tax that resembles a user fee) is the least objectionable form of federal spending. This is somewhat of an arbitrary veto target chosen more for its timing than its substance.
Bush:
The President's political miseries continue, fueled by some polls that show a substantial deficit in one-on-one contests with both Kerry and Edwards.
1) The decision by President Bush to speak out against Sen. Kerry reflects the sense of distress, bordering on panic, in Republican ranks the last few weeks. For the President himself to hit this early at Kerry personally reflects the White House frustration that Bush was getting kicked around without retaliation.
2) That is a failure of the President's political operatives. For the first time, we are hearing complaints from inside the Republican establishment that the Bush White House is incompetent-simply not knowing what it is doing.
3) However, the real long-term problem is "the base"-President Bush's conservative support. From the day he entered office, GWB was intent on keeping the base happy. Now, they are unhappy about many things.
4) The Bush campaign has seemed uncertain exactly how to deal with Kerry-whether to stress his antiwar activities in the past, his more recent Senate voting, or both. Bush's recent fund-raising speech clearly came down in the direction of Kerry's voting record.
