Democratic:
The juggernaut that is Sen. John Kerry (Mass.) becomes even harder to stop after wins in Michigan and Washington caucuses and Virginia and Tennessee primaries.
1) Kerry's wins in Virginia and Tennessee give him victories in all regions of the country. Winning in Sen. John Edwards' (N.C.) "back yard" makes him the uncontested Democratic champion.
2) The size of his wins-actual majorities in Virginia and Michigan and large margins in Tennessee and Washington-make it difficult for any other candidate to spin the results positively. Unlike in Iowa, where Edwards got credit for coming in second, in the past week, the only story has been Kerry continuing to win.
3) Kerry beat former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean by 19 points in Washington, a state where Dean concentrated instead of trying to win February 3 contests. That blowout erases almost all of Dean's hope to win remaining states with strong left-wing contingents.
4) Poor poll showings in Wisconsin for Dean add to the appearance that Dean has no real foothold. Especially with the field thinning out, the occasional 30% showing is not impressive. Dean has no chance to win, and his remaining in the race is an attempt to make some sort of point.
5) Kerry's mammoth victory in the key state of Michigan may be the biggest story. Winning 52% to 17% over his nearest opponent in this swing state with a strong labor contingent shows Kerry's appeal to this essential constituency. Scooping up the labor endorsements strengthens Kerry's hand as the head of the Democratic Party.
6) Edwards' distant second-place finishes in the two southern states on Tuesday are disappointing. He was hoping to show dominance in his region. His staying in the race does not reflect any expectation he can beat Kerry. Instead, because the media coverage has been overwhelmingly positive for Edwards (reflecting his upbeat campaign), he wants to bask in the stage lights as long as possible, planting the seed for a future run for office. (Note: North Carolina's filing deadline for Senate candidates is February 27.)
7) Retired Gen. Wesley Clark quit after collecting only one win-and that basically a tie in Oklahoma. Clark lost badly in Missouri and Tennessee, two neighbors of his home state Arkansas. Clark's mediocre showing on February 3 was really the end of the road for him. Losing to Sharpton in Michigan made things even worse.
8) With war veteran Kerry as the nominee, it's hard to see the virtues in picking Gen. Clark as a running mate.
9) Rep. Dennis Kucinich (Ohio) had his best showing to date Saturday, finishing third in Washington and Maine, with 16% in Maine.
10) Rev. Al Sharpton's relatively strong showing in Michigan is perhaps more impressive than his third place finish in South Carolina. Sharpton intends to stay in the race for the long haul, although he has no delusions of victory.
11) It is almost impossible to conceive of a scenario in which Kerry does not win the nomination. He could sweep Super Tuesday on March 2, possibly clinching a majority of delegates that early.
Bush:
Republicans are nervous and badly in need of a morale boost as they await a long (more than eight months), arduous battle between President George W. Bush and Sen. Kerry (D.- Mass.).
1) The latest morale deflator was President Bush's performance on "Meet the Press." Even true believers were at a loss to understand why Bush would volunteer to undergo Tim Russert's interrogation and then proceed to go through the ordeal without a clear plan for answering the inevitable questions.
2) The principal unanswered question was why the U.S. went into war in Iraq. Ever since the statement by former chief arms inspector David Kay that no Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD), the President has seemed off balance on this and did not respond well to Russert.
3) Bush also was shaky on an issue that has been around for more than four years: his attendance or non-attendance at Air National Guard sessions in Alabama in 1972. This is an unexpected problem for the Bush that is surprisingly inept in answering.
4) A basic problem is that the Republicans have not yet figured out how to deal with Kerry. The early attacks on him by Republican National Chairman Ed Gillespie and campaign manager Ken Mehlman proved ineffective, and the decision was made for Bush not to deal with him.
5) Actually, Republican strategists regard Kerry as a highly vulnerable candidate-more vulnerable than any Democrat other than former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean. The Bush team just is not ready to unleash the attack, but it has the effect of making Bush seem weak.
