New Hampshire:
Former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean never recovered from his third place humiliation in Iowa, followed by his self-abuse in his Des Moines rant. His election night claim in Manchester that he had righted the ship in New Hampshire was pure spin. The unpublished and unbroadcast rumors of early exit polls showing a nip-and-tuck race point to systemic problems that exaggerate early voting by more affluent voters.
Sen. John Kerry (Mass.) defeated Dean in general and in detail. He was ahead of Dean in every age, education and income group. The only sub-group carried by Dean was the 15% of primary voters who classified themselves as ??¢â???¬?????very liberal.??¢â???¬ Dean nearly carried the state capital of Concord and its environs, but Kerry swept every other region of the state.
Here??¢â???¬â???¢s the rundown on how the four leading candidates did:
Kerry: He continued the high stride he had hit in Iowa. In New Hampshire as in Iowa, war veterans and fire fighters constituted a potent force of ground troops backing him. The hockey exhibition, which was arranged for Kerry to score two goals, was an eye-catching media event. Kerry continued campaigning very hard, almost to the hour that the polls closed??¢â???¬"and made no mistakes.
Dean: He recovered his poise after the Des Moines rant but not the thousands of voters he had lost. Only the hard core ended up voting for him. Although Dean controlled himself after Des Moines, he could not resist saying that three of his opponents had the blood of over 500 U.S. soldiers on their hands because of their Senate votes authorizing war in Iraq.
Wesley Clark: In the eight days after Iowa (which he sat out), the retired general lost half of his New Hampshire support. It is not so much that Clark is an inherently bad candidate, but is a terribly inexperienced one. His debate performance last Thursday was so bad that it was memorable, highlighted by reading from crib notes in unsuccessfully trying to explain his position on abortion. The final obscure mistake came on the last day of campaigning when he declared he was so poor he worked his way through West Point (tuition there is paid by the taxpayers). Clark is so bad a candidate that vice-presidential talk has just about ended.
John Edwards: The North Carolina senator??¢â???¬â???¢s dead heat with Clark was a disappointment to his supporters and surely to himself (although he tried to claim he had caught up with Clark, when in fact Clark fell back to him). He was just as compelling and effective as he had been in Iowa, but the dogs in New Hampshire just didn??¢â???¬â???¢t like the dog food. Whether that disinclination is perceived as regional or national may determine whether there is a place on the ticket for him.
Reelect:
The past few weeks haven??¢â???¬â???¢t been good for President George W. Bush??¢â???¬â???¢s re-election effort.
1) The returns in on the State of the Union Address were not good. For the first time, Bush was trapped by the bureaucratic procedures that turned the speech into an unappetizing laundry list. Conservatives were not satisfied with either his 4% discretionary spending growth (see below) or his failure to propose a constitutional amendment on marriage.
2) The statement by resigned arms inspector David Kay that there are no Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) in Iraq was not exactly news, but when it hits the front pages and the evening news it constitutes a major problem politically for the President.
3) The rise of John Kerry is bad news for the GOP. Republican strategists would have preferred Dean or even Clark.
Conservative Base:
Increasingly, conservative discontent is becoming visible, which causes some uneasiness for Bush, but will not result in any serious conservative uprising.
1) The primary area of dissent is spending increases. Washington conservatives do not buy into the official Bush numbers that non-defense, non-homeland security, discretionary spending was kept under control.
2) Spending may not be the issue conservatives generally care about the most, but it is the most quantifiable failure of the Bush Administration. Also, runaway spending arms the left??¢â???¬"by increasing deficits and endangering the permanency of the Bush tax cuts.
3) At the annual Conservative Political Action Confernece last week, many of the panels and speakers focused on topics highlighting some of the less-than-conservative actions taken by President Bush.
4) Since no viable challenge is likely to emerge on the right, the real danger to Bush comes from possibly deflating conservatives, leaving them at home on Election Day.
5) Whether or not conservatives stay home in November will depend on Bush??¢â???¬â???¢s opponent.
