Iowa Summary:
The 122,000 Iowans (though more than twice the number that participated in 2000) who went to Monday night's caucuses constituted far less of the state's 2.9-million residents who would vote in a primary election. Nevertheless, contrary to the conventional wisdom, that relatively small number of caucus goers acted precisely as if they were voting in a primary election. The outcome of the caucuses closely followed the polls.
1) The polls had indicated clearly that former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean was in serious trouble. His gaffes, his temper tantrums and the harsh criticism of his opponents all took their toll. As he continued to drop in the polls, the conventional wisdom was that his intricate organization of Iowa augmented by 5,000 volunteers coming in from all over the country would overcome his falling popularity. It did not. The caucus worked exactly as if it were a primary.
2) It was clear from the beginning that Rep. Richard Gephardt (Mo.) was fading fast in Iowa, without popular appeal. But it was thought that the 900 labor union supporters sent in from throughout America (headed by Teamsters president James P. Hoffa) would make the different in caucuses. They could not prevent a fourth place finish that ended Gephardt's political career.
3) Sen. John Kerry (Mass.) was the beneficiary of the Dean-Gephardt collapse. He still fails as a stump speaker, unable to finish his speeches. But he comes over as a serious adult person, a war hero and experienced public servant.
4) The hot candidate in Iowa, coming up from nowhere with the least effective organization, was Sen. John Edwards (N.C.). He was by far the best stump speaker in the field.
New Hampshire Overview:
The outlook in New Hampshire is radically altered by Iowa's results.
1) Kerry, who was plummeting in the Granite State is now on a dramatic upswing.
2) Clark's honeymoon, as the only strong candidate in the state day-to-day is over, and he now faces his first real test as a candidate.
3) Edwards is now a factor, although he cannot be expected to fare as well here as in Iowa.
4) With Gephardt and Carol Moseley-Braun gone, and Rep. Dennis Kucinich (Ohio) and the Rev. Al Sharpton proved to be non-factors, the seven or eight percent that they were garnering in polls is now up for grabs.
5) Dean goes from favorite to falling star, leaving a scramble for his voters.
State of the Union:
As with all election-year State of the Union addresses, this was large part campaign address. As a result, it was lighter on policy proposals than George W. Bush's past speeches, and heavier on defense of his first three years.
1) While President Bush was defending his record, he was anything but defensive. He was unapologetic about the issues on which Democrats are running against him: the war and tax cuts.
2) The message was that he is moving the country and the world forward, and other politicians are either with us or against us. Most Democrats, taking their cue from Sen. Edward Kennedy (D.-Mass.), responded by sitting and not applauding throughout the speech.
3) Looking at the issues Bush touted-which included a Medicare drug entitlement and an increased federal role in education-the speech would seem to cross ideological lines. But watching the Democrats' reaction made it clear that the battle line are firmly drawn for this election year.
4) Bush was unapologetic about the war effort, ridiculing and scolding his detractors with the highlight being his lengthy list of nations that backed the war. He combined a couple of glares to the Democratic side of the aisle with a direct jab at Dean, regarding "seek[ing] a permission slip to defend the security of our people."
5) Bush continued his almost-Messianic rhetoric about "America is a nation with a mission" to spread Democracy globally.
6) Bush's most boisterous applause came on his call to make permanent the tax cuts. His other conservative proposal was on Social Security reform. Bush gave no specifics, and Sen. John Sununu (R.-N.H.) made it clear that 2004 would be a year of "education and campaigning" on the issue.
7) Bush's new programs-on-the-job training, addiction treatment and more- made this another expensive State of the Union.
8) Bush's assertion that spending increases will be kept to below 4% growth was neither ambitious nor believable. Conservatives have given up hope on spending restraint.
9) On social issues, Bush spoke of homosexual marriage and protection of family. Democrats' refusal to applaud the notion that abstinence until marriage is desirable shows how clear are the lines in the culture war.
