*WHAT THE POLLS WERE TELLING US ABOUT IOWA: An MSNBC/Reuters/Zogby tracking poll of likely Iowa caucus voters showed a remarkable trend as of January 15. Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry, after trailing for months, had vaulted into the lead over former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean and Missouri Rep. Dick Gephardt. It also showed North Carolina Sen. John Edwards, newly endorsed by the Des Moines Register, climbing into contention.
The results: Kerry 22%; Dean 21%; Gephardt 21%; Edwards 17%; Clark 3%; Kucinich 3%; Lieberman 1%. The poll surveyed 500 people and had a margin of error of +/- 4.5%. It also used a "weighted" voter sample. "Slight weights were added to party, age, education, union membership, and gender to more accurately reflect the voting population," the pollsters explained. It's possible that the voters who actually turn out at the caucuses may reflect a different demographic than this survey anticipated.
*CLARK RISING: The race for the January 27 New Hampshire Democratic primary has also tightened a bit, but not nearly as much as Iowa. And, while Kerry may be surging in Iowa, in at least one poll he has fallen behind retired Gen. Wesley Clark in New Hampshire. Clark is not running in Iowa.
The American Research tracking poll of likely New Hampshire primary voters completed January 4 (margin of error +/-4%) showed: Dean 39%; Kerry 14%; Clark 12%; Lieberman 6%; Gephardt 6%. But the same poll completed January 10 had these results: Dean 34%; Clark 20%; Kerry 11%; Lieberman 9%; Gephardt 4%. Probable upshot: Kerry, Gephardt or Edwards must defeat Dean in Iowa first, if any candidate is to have a shot of defeating Dean in New Hampshire. If Dean does lose Iowa, the biggest immediate beneficiary could be Clark.
* 'FALSE CONVICTION': Sensing that he had a chance to win in Iowa and save his otherwise doomed campaign, Gephardt stepped up his personal attacks on Dean last week. "There is no room for the cynical politics of manufactured anger and false conviction," said Gephardt.
"I've come to realize that Howard Dean isn't shooting from the hip," said Gephardt. "That's just making excuses for him. Howard Dean knows exactly what he's saying when he says it. And if you think he's contradicting himself, well, as far as he's concerned, that's your problem and not his."
*WEAK ON TERRORISTS: Gephardt provided more good ammunition for Republicans to use against Dean on the national security issue, if Dean in fact emerges as the Democratic nominee.
"He actually said it could be 'good and bad' if the Islamic terrorists of Hamas took over the Palestinian leadership," said Gephardt. "First Howard Dean wouldn't speculate on Osama bin Laden's guilt. Now we find out he thinks there's an upside to terrorists' running the Palestinian Authority. . . . Howard Dean clearly thinks it's provocative or clever to say the outrageous, no matter what the consequences."
*ACU SUES: While Gephardt was targeting Dean last week, the American Conservative Union was suing Gephardt. The ACU's lawsuit, designed to force the clerk of the U. S. House to withhold much of Gephardt's congressional pay, is based on a very clear federal law.
"The Secretary of the Senate and the Chief Administrative Officer of the House," the law says, ". . . shall deduct from the monthly payments (or other periodic payment authorized by law) of each Member or Delegate the amount of his salary for each day that he has been absent from the Senate or the House, respectively, unless such Member or Delegate assigns for the reason for such absence the sickness of himself or some member of his family." Gephardt missed 506 of the first 558 votes last year, or 90% of the total. He wasn't sick; he was campaigning. "No one ever abused this law as badly as Dick Gephardt," said ACU Chairman David Keene.
*DEAN'S ENDORSEMENT: Three years ago, a remarkably docile Dean all but endorsed President Bush for reelection. According to videotapes of a Canadian television program unearthed by NBC News (see cover story), Dean said in 2001: "George Bush, I believe, is-in his soul a moderate." He also said: "So I think all of those of us who are salivating and saying, 'Ah-ha, this is going to be a one-term presidency,' I think that's a mistake." More recently, Dean has said of Bush: "He's the most conservative-well, he's not conservative-radical President since we've had in my lifetime."
*MOSELEY-BRAUN'S CONTRIBUTION: Former Sen. Carol Moseley-Braun (D.-Ill.), polling at 1% in the Iowa caucuses, terminated her campaign last week and promptly endorsed Howard Dean. Some observers argued that her withdrawal proved that the real purpose of her campaign was to reduce Al Sharpton's vote in the January 13 District of Columbia primary. In fact, Moseley-Braun took 12% in that primary, which if added to Sharpton's 34%, would have given Sharpton the votes he needed to defeat Dean, who won the primary with 43%.
*RED PLANET, RED INK, RED CHINESE? Thirty-five years ago the United States defeated the Soviet Union in the race to put the first man on the moon. When Americans got to the moon we did not plant the flag of the UN or any other global consortium. We put up the Stars and Stripes.
Last week, President Bush announced his vision for a return mission to the moon to establish a permanent human outpost on the lunar surface. That would set the stage for launching human beings to Mars. The rub: This project would not only be hugely expensive at a time when the federal budget is already growing out of control, it also would be seen by many as globalistic. "The vision I outline today is a journey, not a race," said Bush, "and I call on other nations to join us on this journey in the spirit of cooperation and friendship." When asked if the project might even include Communist China, NASA Administrator Sean O'Keefe said, "Who knows? I wouldn't want to speculate."
