Pending the outcome of Texas redistricting, there may be as few as 15 competitive races for seats in the U.S. House of Representatives this November. Of the 435 House seats, 227 are currently held by Republicans, 205 by Democrats, and 1 by an Independent (Bernie Sanders of Vermont, who votes with the Democrats). There are also two vacancies (Ernie Fletcher, Ky. and Bill Janklow, S.D.). Because 10 of the 15 races likely to be competitive are in districts now held by Democrats, odds are very good the Republicans will win a majority for the sixth straight election. Thanks to favorable redistricting in key states after the 2000 Census, Republicans were able to increase their ranks in the House in the 2002 mid-term elections, a rare accomplishment for a party that also controls the White House. But redistricting also increased the number of "safe" districts for both parties. Ninety-eight per cent of House incumbents were re-elected in 2002. Of the seven incumbents who were defeated, four lost in races against fellow incumbents in consolidated districts. Here, then, is a summary of the congressional districts that may actually face competitive contests this fall. Incumbent: Bob Beauprez (R.) District: Colorado-7 Analysis: Stalwart conservative Beauprez won by 121 votes out of 173,000 in '02's closest race - no clear favorite. Incumbent: Tim Bishop (D.) District: New York-1 Analysis: Bishop won historically GOP Long Island district under flukish circumstances in '02. United GOP should make it a tight race in '04 - no clear favorite. Incumbent: Max Burns (R.) District: Georgia-12 Analysis: Burns is the Republican with largest black constituency (over 40%) and will face one of two state legislators - no clear favorite. Incumbent: Brad Carson (D.)* District: Oklahoma-2 Analysis: With Carson running for Senate, Republicans have several well-known candidates; likely Democratic candidate is State Rep. Dan Boren, son of former senator - Democrat favored. Incumbent: Cal Dooley (D.)* District: California-20 Analysis: Although district trends Democratic, succession fight between Dooley's top aide Lisa Quigley and State Sen. Jim Costa could benefit GOP nominee, State Sen. Roy Ashburn - leans Democratic. Vacant: Ernie Fletcher (R.), resigned this seat Dec. 9, 2003, to become governor. District: Kentucky-6 Analysis: State Sen. Alice Forgy Kerr has solid backing from state and national GOPers to succeed Gov-elect Ernie Fletcher; Democrat is defeated gubernatorial nominee A.B. Chandler - leans Republican. Incumbent: Phil Gingrey (R.) District: Georgia-11 Analysis: Gingrey barely held seat with 52% in '02 - leans Republican. Incumbent: Joseph Hoeffel (D.)* District: Pennsylvania-13 Analysis: Hoeffel is running for Senate and area Dems have no strong candidate. Moderate '02 nominee Melissa Brown is the GOP frontrunner - leans Republican. Incumbent: Tim Holden (D.) District: Pennsylvania-17 Analysis: Holden barely won seat in '02 over another incumbent. Six Republicans—including Scott Paterno, son of the revered college football coach—have filed to run - leans Democratic. Incumbent: John Hostettler (R.) District: Indiana-8 Analysis: Hostettler, who always has tough race, faces onetime Boston Celtics assistant coach Jon Jennings - leans Republican. Vacant: Bill Janklow (R.), to resign this seat January 20, after a felony conviction. District: South Dakota-AL Analysis: '02 Democratic nominee Stephanie Herseth—who drew 46% against Republican Bill Janklow—is nominee in June 1 special election to replace the resigned Janklow. Special GOP convention will pick from five lesser-known candidates - Democrat favored. Incumbent: Ken Lucas (D.)* District: Kentucky-4 Analysis: Lucas's choice as successor is popular TV host George Clooney, but district supports Republicans at all other levels and GOP has two strong opponents - leans Republican. Incumbent: Jim Marshall (D.) District: Georgia-3 Analysis: A narrow winner in '02 (51%-to-49%), Marshall faces rematch with Bibb County Commissioner Calder Clay - leans Democratic. Incumbent: Jim Matheson (D.) District: Utah-2 Analysis: '02 GOP nominee John Swallow, who lost by about 1500 votes, is likely to be in rematch with Democrat Matheson - no clear favorite. Incumbent: Dennis Moore (D.) District: Kansas-3 Analysis: Three-termer Moore, re-elected with 50% last time, will face either '02 opponent Adam Taff or former John Ashcroft aide Chris Kobach - no clear favorite.
