Dean:
The big story is that Retired Gen. Wesley Clark is gaining on former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean and could catch him by January 28. This is due in part to a Clark uprising.
1) His careless comments have hurt him nationwide, but in New Hampshire, where voters get to see him face-to-face regularly, he is more harmed by his arrogance and condescension, which are starting to shine through.
2) His "edge," as many New Hampshire voters called Dean’s attitude, is his chief virtue but also may be his undoing. Voters who do not share his degree of anger are turned off by it. With independents able to vote in the primary, Dean’s anger may undercut him.
3) Some New Hampshirites described him as "imploding" of late, raising electability concerns. His supporters say that he will turn out young voters who might otherwise stay home, but he is also seen as polarizing and weak on national security.
4) Dean is, by far, the most charismatic and inspiring of the candidates, and that is why he leads in the polls. He captures the anti-Bush anger well, and Granite State voters are familiar with his governing record in neighboring Vermont.
5) If he wins in Iowa he will ride a bounce into New Hampshire.
Clark:
Clark looks poised for a strong second-place finish and maybe even a win.
1) Clark has seized much of the aura Dean long held of embodying the Democratic Party. Clark, however, lacks Dean’s negatives.
2) His tone is firm without Dean’s anger. He exudes confidence and intelligence without Dean’s arrogance. He far exceeds Dean on national security credibility.
3) Like Kerry, Clark sells his resume and his character-except that Clark seems to have a better product. His military pedigree appeals to voters concerned about national security, and his willingness to talk about "values" assuages fears that the GOP has the high ground on personal morality.
4) Clark’s climb is still a matter of voters’ developing a little crush on him rather than truly falling for him. Again, New Hampshire voters are largely undecided, and they are intrigued, but not convinced, by Clark. It is possible, these voters could swing back to Dean, but Clark has a strong chance now to win them over.
5) In addition to the Dean integrity, idealistic crowd, Clark is very strong among the independents who would like to replace Bush, but are not rabid in their dislike of him. Also, not being in the spotlight for as long, Clark’s missteps-largely inexplicable flip-flops-are less noticed to date.
6) Clark’s tax plan-further graduating the tax code by cutting middle rates while hiking higher rates and "closing corporate loopholes"-is the best plan politically of all the Democratic candidates. Unlike Dean’s and Gephardt’s, it doesn’t hurt the middle class, while it would generate more revenue than the partial repeals of the Bush cuts.
7) Clark’s staying out of Iowa, in the end, could turn out to be a good call. His rise in New Hampshire is partly due to his having twice the presence of any other candidate. He also has a far greater appeal in New Hampshire than he would among the party activists who attend caucuses.
Kerry:
Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry’s disappointing campaign appears headed further downward in his own back yard.
1) Living next door to New Hampshire was supposed to give Kerry the Granite State and hence a running start on the primary season. Instead, it is more likely to sound his early death-knell.
2) Kerry had as his only selling point that he was "presidential" and the media-anointed front-runner. New Hampshire primary voters demanded more, and Kerry never provided it.
3) His "gravitas" comes across as imperious, especially compared to fiery Dean and smooth Clark. His speeches are not even nearly as impressive or inspirational as theirs. His crowds are smaller and less enthusiastic.
Gephardt:
Rep. Dick Gephardt (Mo.) becomes a player if he wins Iowa.
1) To date, Gephardt has little traction in New Hampshire. Voters don’t know him very well, and don’t see what distinguishes him from the rest of the field. He is far from inspiring. He ran poorly here in ’88 after winning Iowa.
2) Although in fact he may be the most electable of the Democrats, he is not seen that way because of his dull delivery.
3) To even register in the consciousness of most New Hampshire voters, Gephardt needs to win Iowa. Even an upset in Iowa would not be enough, though, to send him into the top tier in New Hampshire.
