The U.S. Senate line-up now is 51 Republicans, 48 Democrats and 1 Independent (Jeffords). There will be 33 U.S. Senate races this year. Nineteen are for seats now held by Democrats; 14 are for seats now held by Republicans. Of the Democrat-held seats, 10 are likely to see competitive races, while three of the Republican-held seats fall into that category. The Republicans have a distinct advantage because there are five states, all in the South (Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, North Carolina and South Carolina) where the incumbent Democratic senator is retiring. There are only two, Illinois and Oklahoma, where the incumbent Republican senator is retiring. Here is a summary of my analysis for this year's competitive Senate races. Alaska
Lisa Murkowski (R.)
Appointed by her governor-father, Murkowski has no primary challenge but is running neck-and-neck in most polls with Democratic former Gov. Tony Knowles.
No Clear Favorite California
Barbara Boxer (D.)
Following Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's recall victory, four Republicans want the nod against Boxer. Early favorite is conservative former state legislator Howard Kaloogian.
Leaning Democratic Retention Florida
Bob Graham (D.)*
Six Republicans vying in primary. Without Graham, Democrats are down to B-Team.
Leaning Republican Takeover Georgia
Zell Miller (D.)*
Representatives Johnny Isakson and Mac Collins and former Godfather's pizza head Herman Cain are seeking GOP nomination. Democrats are scraping for a candidate.
Likely Republican Takeover Illinois
Peter Fitzgerald (R.)*
Five Republicans and six Democrats want to succeed Fitzgerald.
No Clear Favorite Louisiana
John Breaux (D.)*
Rep. Chris John (D.) and Rep. David Vitter (R.) will square off in only Southern state never to elect GOP senator.
No Clear Favorite Nevada
Harry Reid (D.)
Senate Democratic Whip Reid won last time by third-closest Senate race in history. At least three Republicans want a crack at him.
Leaning Democratic Retention North Carolina
John Edwards (D.)*
Rep. Richard Burr is favored over former Clinton top aide Erskine Bowles.
Likely Republican Takeover Oklahoma
Don Nickles (R.)*
Rep. Brad Carson may be Democrat's best prospect to take a Republican Senate seat. Many Republicans unimpressed with GOP front-runner, Oklahoma City Mayor Kirk Humphries.
No Clear Favorite South Carolina
Ernest Hollings (D.)*
Four Republicans in race, including Rep. Jim DeMint and former State Atty. Gen. Charles Condon. Democrats have second-string possibilities
Leaning Republican Takeover South Dakota
Tom Daschle (D.)
Minority Leader Daschle facing strong challenge from ex-Rep. John Thune, who barely lost a race for the other Senate seat in 2002.
Leaning Democratic Retention Washington State
Patty Murray (D.)
Murray won two tough races and has strong challenger in GOP Rep. George Nethercutt, who ousted sitting House Speaker Tom Foley in 1994.
Leaning Democratic Retention Wisconsin
Russell Feingold (D.)
Three strong Republicans want to take on Feingold. Early GOP favorite is conservative State Senate Pres. Robert Welch.
Leaning Democratic Retention *Incumbent is retiring.
