Texas Redistricting:
The U.S. Department of Justice found that the Texas redistricting plan did not violate the Voting Rights Act of 1965.
1) This is not the new map’s final legal hurdle, but it is a good omen for the plan’s prospects. The map creates two additional predominantly minority districts while also creating up to seven new GOP districts.
2) Democrats have already begun decrying the Voting Rights ruling, attacking the "Ashcroft DOJ" as racist and disenfranchising blacks. This is an attempt to play off of anger from the 2000 Florida recount and cries of disenfranchisement there.
3) This campaign will attempt to motivate African-American voters, who vote overwhelmingly Democratic. But national Democrats may overestimate this tactic’s usefulness four years after Florida.
Colorado-7:
The state supreme court’s rejection of the Republican re-map makes life slightly harder for Rep. Bob Beauprez (R) to hang on to his seat. The new map would have shifted some more Republicans into the 7th District, which Beauprez won by fewer than 200 votes last November.
Former State Senate leader Ed Perlmutter (D) is planning to run, as is prosecutor Dave Thomas (D), who lost the primary last year. Banker John Works (D) may enter, as well.
Thomas could run strong against Beauprez, who might suffer from bad p.r. over the cynical-looking remap.
-LEANING REPUBLICAN RETENTION.
Kentucky-6:
The February 17 battle for the open seat vacated by Gov. Ernie Fletcher (R) will be the first inter-party contest of 2004. Party higher-ups last month selected former Atty. Gen. Ben Chandler (D) and State Sen. Alice Forgy-Kerr (R).
The state is rapidly trending Republican, and Kerr is a strong candidate with the solid backing of Sen. Mitch McConnell (R), the state’s political power-broker. Chandler, however, came close to winning this district last month in his race for governor against Fletcher, who is stronger than Kerr.
Kerr needs to drive up her name i.d. In an effort to do so, she bought Lexington television spots starting the day after Christmas. Still, the race may prove too short for her to introduce herself to the voters, who already know Chandler well.
-LEANING DEMOCRATIC TAKEOVER.
Louisiana-1:
Rep. David Vitter (R) is vacating this seat to run for the open seat of Sen. John Breaux (D). This district stretches north from New Orleans, and is the GOP’s firmest stronghold in the state.
Unsuccessful 2003 governor candidate Bobby Jindal (R) is on the verge of entering the race, in which case he would be the front-runner. Conservative State Rep. Steve Scalise (R) is otherwise the strongest candidate.
Local school board official Una Anderson (D) is considering a run, but any Democrat would be a heavy underdog here.
-LIKELY REPUBLICAN RETENTION.
Louisiana-7:
The Southwestern Louisiana district currently represented by Rep. Chris John (D) is, on paper, a toss-up district, but the current field tilts strongly towards the Democrats.
John, a relatively conservative Democrat, is probably running for the Senate, and a handful of Democratic legislators and other local officials are lining up to replace him. State Sens. Willie Mount (D) and Don Cravins (D) have thrown their hats in the ring, and State Reps. Gil Pinac (D) and Eric LaFleur (D) may pile on. Lake Charles Mayor Randy Roach (D) and State Judge Ned Doucet (D) are also considering bids. Of that crop, Pinac might be the strongest candidate.
State Rep. Ronnie Johns (R) is tilting towards a run, but he has little name recognition and shallow political ties. College Professor David Thibodaux (R), who lost to John in 1996, could enter.
-LEANING DEMOCRATIC RETENTION.
Nebraska-1:
Rep. Doug Bereuter (R), the longest-serving congressman in Nebraska’s history, will not seek a 14th term next year.
With no clear candidate and a fairly safe GOP district, expect a Republican pile-on in this Lincoln-based district. The top state legislator, Speaker Curt Bromm (R), has announced. Lincoln lawyer Mark Fahleson (R), a former Capitol Hill staffer, is on the verge of jumping in.
Lt. Gov. Dave Heineman (R) is considering a bid, as is his predecessor, David Maurstad (R). Former Atty. Gen. Dick Stenberg (R), who ran unsuccessfully for Senate in 2000 could join in.
State Sen. Matt Connealy (D) has entered the race on the Democratic side, but takeover chances here are slim, especially with Bush atop the ticket.
-LIKELY REPUBLICAN RETENTION.
Pennsylvania-13:
Republicans failed to recruit unsuccessful Philadelphia mayoral candidate Sam Katz (R) to run in this open seat race, and their hopes may now rest on two-time congressional loser Melissa Brown (R).
Rep. Joe Hoeffel (D) is abandoning his Philadelphia-area seat to run for the U.S. Senate, leaving this toss-up district open. State Rep. Ellen Bard (R) and businessman Al Tautenberger (R) are also vying for the nomination.
Democrats here lost their best candidate in Jonathan Saidell (D), the Philadelphia City controller, who decided to keep his current job. Liberal State Sen. Allyson Schwartz (D) is now perhaps the frontrunner for the nomination, which would throw the advantage to the GOP. Local activist Joe Torsella (D) will challenge Schwartz as will State Rep. Mark Cohen (D).
-LEANING REPUBLICAN TAKEOVER.
South Dakota-At Large:
The criminal conviction of at-large Rep. Bill Janklow (R), the state’s four-term governor, opens the door for the second major inter-party brawl of 2004 on June 1. Party insiders picked the candidates earlier this month.
Democrats have tapped political legacy Stephanie Herseth (D) once again. Herseth ran well in 2002 but lost convincingly to Janklow. An alumna of Georgetown Law School, she has impressive fund-raising abilities and solid national party support. After her 2002 run, her statewide name i.d. is solid.
Republicans have pinned their retention hopes on GOP insider Larry Russell (R). Russell, a businessman and former aide to ex-Rep. John Thune (R), labored on the 2002 elections for the GOP, earning himself the chits he needed to get the nomination. He also has a strong network for fundraising and grass-roots Election Day turnout efforts.
However, Russell’s name i.d. is low, and, running in June, he will get no bounce from Bush atop the ticket. With conservative money pouring in from Washington, Russell should have the time and the resources to introduce himself to the voters.
Still, Herseth is popular and likable, and beating her will be tough.
-LEANING DEMOCRATIC TAKEOVER.
