Fallout:
Looking ahead to 2004, this month's elections have some consequences and also serve as bellwethers.
1) Southern voters have simply kicked the centuries-old habit of pulling the Democratic lever. The residue of Reconstruction anger had supplied a small base in the South from which Democrats were able to build victories down there, but this base is gone. This means any Democratic presidential contender needs to win everything Gore won plus Florida, Missouri or Ohio. It also spells real trouble for the Democratic hopes at the Senate, where four southern states are ripe for GOP takeovers, with a fifth (Louisiana) a possibility to join that list. Also, with four Deep South governors losing, the old-school conservative breed of Southern Democrat politician is almost extinct.
2) President George W. Bush needs to worry whether the governors' fates in 2002 and 2003 will be his fate. Voter perception of the economy may turn around by next November, but voter dissatisfaction with their executives is almost unprecedented.
3) The only race that Democrats were willing to turn into a national contest was the Philadelphia mayor's race where Bill Clinton, Al Gore, Jesse Jackson and other national figures carried the Democratic banner. Much of their message was one of race-baiting and demonization of Bush and Atty. Gen. John Ashcroft. The tone of this campaign was reminiscent of Democratic cries of racial disenfranchisement in Florida in 2000 as well as their political reaction to the Texas redistricting. This is the closest thing to a national Democratic message: "Bush and Ashcroft are corrupt and racist."
4) Regarding the Southern tidal wave for the GOP, the next dominoes to fall will be Tennessee, Arkansas and North Carolina. These states are slower to go Republican for a few reasons. Tennessee saw something of a reversal last year, in part because it has some more liberal elements, and in part because of an utterly failed GOP governor. North Carolina is less Southern in some ways, but soon will join its neighbors. Arkansas, like parts of Oklahoma, is just more detached from national trends.
Democratic Presidential:
With Iowa Caucuses less than 11 weeks away, the pressure on former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean picks up, as do the whispers about a Clinton hand in the race.
1) Since the summer, Dean has been the frontrunner and the other contenders have been playing catch-up. Dean's problem has always been his willingness to speak off the cuff and sometimes injudiciously. Recently, his comments about winning the votes of people with Confederate flags in their pickup trucks has earned him some criticism.
2) Dean stood his ground in the debate Tuesday night, but needing to explain your stance on the Confederate flag is not an advantageous position for any candidate. While some candidates portrayed the Dean comments as racist, others portrayed them as condescending to southerners. If as a nominee, Dean cannot energize black voters next year, he cannot win the White House. This gaffe, not any perceived liberalism, may have made Dean unelectable.
3) Democratic chafing at a Dean nomination stems only partly from claims he is unelectable-his record is no more liberal than those of Senators John Kerry (Mass.) or John Edwards (N.C.). A major factor in establishment opposition to Dean is simply that Dean is not one of them: he is not a Beltway insider, does not have the same friends, and would not retain the advisers and DNC staff still hanging around from the Clinton days.
4) Retired Gen. Wesley Clark (Ark.) is most likely that man for three reasons: (a) His military pedigree could lend Democrats some desperately lacking credibility; (b) He is the closest candidate to the Clintons; (c) Dean's other rivals are uncompelling. However, Clark is seen as on a very steep learning curve as a political rookie.
6) Kerry relied on his appearance of gravitas and his status as a front-runner to buoy his campaign early on. Voters had trouble grasping any specific message from Kerry-it is unclear if he has one-and his hollow lead fell apart. With double-digit deficits in New Hampshire, Kerry may not have anything in his repertoire that could resuscitate his campaign.
8) Sen. Joe Lieberman (Conn.) still fails to win support in any state where voters are paying attention to the race. He floats on high name i.d. and sinks on his moderate record and lack of charisma.
9) Rep. Dick Gephardt (Mo.), together with Clark and Dean, rounds out the top-tier. Gephardt, like Dean, has some grass-roots support and good chance in Iowa. Like Clark, Gephardt has some Beltway allies. He needs to win in Iowa to stay alive.
