With less than 24 hours to go before the balloting in two of the three states electing governors this fall, the signs are strong that the Republican Party-not to mention President Bush-will emerge triumphant tomorrow: as Mississippi and Kentucky are almost slam-dunks to go from Democratic to Republican governors. Coming a month after Arnold Schwarzenegger's triumph in California-and two weeks before Louisiana decides the winner of its neck-and-neck gubernatorial race-the top political news of November 5th cannot be pleasing to Democrats.
In Mississippi, Republican Haley Barbour has withstood spirited attacks on his background as a Washington lobbyist and maintains a last minute lead in most polls over Democratic Gov. Ronnie Musgrave. The embattled incumbent has never been able to recover his political footing after 1) winning an election in 1999 that had to be decided by the legislature; 2) thereupon breaking a no-tax pledge and 3) undergoing an ugly divorce.
Former Republican National Chairman Barbour has been boosted by campaign visits from Vice President Cheney, Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and, most recently, the President, who drew a wildly cheering crowd on Barbour's behalf. In contrast, Musgrave failed to invite Bill Clinton, Al Gore, or any national Democrat and seemed to run away from his party, in Barbour's words, "like a scalded dog."
In Kentucky, the state with the longest history of no Republican governors is likely to break its 36-year "jinx" by electing Rep. Ernie Fletcher its first Republican governor since 1967. A three-term congressman, physician, and former fighter pilot, the conservative Fletcher pitched his campaign against corruption within the Administration of lameduck Democratic Gov. Paul Patton-in Fletcher's words, "the mess in Frankfort"-rather than his actual Democratic opponent, State Attorney General A.B. "Ben" Chandler. Insisting that he has prosecuted corruption in the Patton Administration, a defensive Chandler says that Patton would be "a drag on Jesus Christ."
As in Mississippi, Bush and Cheney have both come to the Bluegrass State to weigh in for Fletcher, who outraised Chandler by nearly $2 million. With all the late media attention on Gov. Patton's hospitalization for major surgery, it has become almost a symbol of a dying regime about to be replaced by a new order.
GIZZI PREDICTS: Barbour with 53%, Fletcher with 56%, and lots of bromo-seltzer for Democratic national headquarters delivered Wednesday morning.
