Democratic:
Retired Gen. Wesley Clark and Sen. Joseph Lieberman (Conn.) have dropped out of the January 19 Iowa Caucuses. In the end, though, this changes the landscape only a little. 1) For Lieberman, this is an act of desperation. Lieberman, like Clark, fares well in the national polls, but the senator does poorly in New Hampshire and Iowa. In other words, his name i.d. buoys him wherever voters are not yet paying close attention. He needs to hope he can outlast any media bounce for those candidates who do well in Iowa and New Hampshire, and ride his name i.d in March when the calendar is more crowded. His chances look slim. 2) The whole dynamic of this field revolves around former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean. Dean could win Iowa and New Hampshire. If he does, he is nearly unstoppable. This is when Clark hopes to intervene. 3) Clark could be the anti-Dean. Clark can become the alternative to Dean if he spends the next three and a half months building foundations in the February 3 primary states: Arizona, Delaware, Missouri, New Mexico, North Dakota, Oklahoma and South Carolina. Those candidates who put their campaigns on the line in Iowa and New Hampshire may have cleared out or died off by then. 4) Clark and Lieberman hoped to make the Iowa caucuses less meaningful by exiting, but they won’t accomplish that to any significant degree. The move does help them, however, by allowing them to focus their energies on more winnable goals. 5) A historical note: no candidate has won a Democratic nomination who skipped the Iowa caucuses. Dollar:
The impression given that the U.S. is following a weak-dollar policy worries Bush backers who otherwise are encouraged by economic improvement. 1) In a recent conversation with an industrialist who expressed concern over the administration’s drift toward a weak dollar policy, President Bush replied unequivocally that he is a strong dollar man. 2) However, that has not been the message conveyed by Treasury Secretary John Snow and other senior administration officials. Particularly in private conversations, they are pushing a weaker dollar as the way to improve the industrial sector’s performance. 3) There is a great deal of skepticism inside and outside the administration that weakening the dollar will have that much effect on improving industrial exports. The downside is the possibility of curtailed economic improvement, just at the wrong time politically. Georgia Republican:
Rep. Johnny Isakson is the clear frontrunner. His relatively moderate voting record (for Georgia), ambiguity on abortion and Atlanta roots make him distasteful to some GOP activists, though less so than in the past. The hope for conservatives is to force a runoff by keeping Isakson under 50%. The two men who could do that are Rep. Mac Collins and former pizza executive Herman Cain. Both are conservative and far less well known than Isakson. Collins fits into the mold of Gov. Sonny Perdue and Sen. Saxby Chambliss, both of whom defeated Democratic incumbents last year. All three men are good old boys from outside of Atlanta. Collins has a strong, but small, conservative base. To keep Isakson under 50%, though, the burden falls on Cain’s shoulders. Cain, who is black, will need to use his personal wealth wisely. In a brief runoff, Cain, especially with the media attention on a possible black senator from the South, could upset Isakson. Isakson has a huge cash and organizational advantage. But Collins has a campaign team that is not afraid to go negative, and if he kicks around Isakson enough, it could open the door for Cain. This could be the nation’s most interesting primary if Isakson doesn’t walk away with it early. Leaning Isakson. Georgia Democratic:
There is simply no replacement for Sen. Zell Miller (D.), retiring next year. Miller finds himself now in a Democratic Party far to the left of the one he knew, and far, far less powerful in the Peach State. The Democrats’ last great hope is Michelle Nunn, daughter of former Sen. Sam Nunn (D.), a Georgia legend. If Nunn jumps in, she will bring with her the fundraising and campaign apparatus of her father. If she doesn’t—and we should know this week—the Democrats are in serious trouble. The only Democrat already in the race is State Sen. Mary Squires, who has no real chance. Moderate Rep. Jim Marshall wants to run, but he has not yet jumped in. Health concerns—or a reality check—may keep him out.
