Iraq:
For the time being, Iraq policy constitutes the biggest political headache for President George W. Bush and the Republicans.
1) Republican Senators home for their week-long Columbus Day recess found their constituents much less worried about the $87 billion war supplemental than casualties. Even the staunchest Republican voters are distraught over deaths reported in Iraq every day. That is the real reason for the GOP mini-revolt on the supplemental (see below).
2) The White House P.R. campaign to show how well things are going in Iraq did not get very high grades from Republican politicos. They say the voters are not moved by stories of new schools and democracy in Iraq when what they really want is an end to the casualties.
3) The continued public disagreements of Bush’s national security team were the reason for the uncharacteristically harsh instructions by Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Richard Lugar (R.-Ind.) to take charge. Lugar’s sentiments are not universal in the Republican Conference, but other senators who do not speak out-such as Armed Services Committee Chairman John Warner (R.-Va.)-want an end to the internal quibbling.
4) Lugar’s remarks on NBC’s "Meet the Press" did not go over well with the people at the White House-especially the President himself. Bush was unusually testy and intractable in lobbying the loan advocates on the supplemental bill.
5) The most-talked about speech in the administration’s P.R. campaign was given by Vice President Dick Cheney at the Heritage Foundation. Some Republican lawmakers (including Lugar) thought it too harsh; others considered it by far the best GOP speech. That reflects the division on Iraq down the middle of the Republican Party.
War Supplemental:
Despite the Senate’s surprising rebuke to the President two weeks ago on the issue of loans to Iraq, Republican leaders are confident they can craft a final $87 billion war supplemental that meets Bush’s criteria.
1) While the majority of House members may have agreed with the idea of a loan, Majority Leader Tom DeLay (R.-Tex.) and Majority Whip Roy Blunt (R.-Mo.) helped bring almost the entire Republican conference in line with rejecting the loan idea.
2) More important than House leadership, though, was a heavy hand from the other end of Pennsylvania Avenue. When conservative appropriator Rep. Zach Wamp (R.-Tenn.) introduced an amendment to shift some of the Iraq aid into loans, the President called Wamp "down to the principal’s office," as his colleagues put it. Wamp returned to the Hill and immediately withdrew his amendment.
3) This treatment of Wamp discouraged other similarly disposed GOP congressmen. Rep. Mike Pence (R.-Ind.) diminished his agitation for loans, while Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (R.-Calif.) had no success whipping other conservatives in favor of the pro-loan amendment offered by Rep. David Obey (D.-Wis.), the ranking member on Appropriations.
4) In the Senate, the loyalty to the White House of the leadership was no match for the resentment and independence of the individual Republicans. The passage of an amendment transforming $10 billion from grants to loans was foreseeable.
5) The Republican defectors on that 51-to-47 vote included the usual suspects from Maine-liberal Senators Susan Collins and Olympia Snowe-freshman Sen. Lisa Murkowski (Alaska) and Sen. Ben Nighthorse Campbell (Colo.), who are perceived as liberal-leaning. But the "yeas" also included a crop of conservatives and Bush loyalists: Senators Lindsey Graham (S.C.), Sam Brownback (Kan.), Saxby Chambliss (Ga.), and John Ensign (Nev.).
6) The conference committee can, if it wishes, pass out a bill with no loan money in it.
Republican:
President Bush’s brief conversation, at Riverside, Calif., on his way to Asia with California Gov.-elect Arnold Schwarzenegger (R.) is closely tied to the 2004 election.
1) Bush’s strategists do not look upon California as a luxury to add to a Bush landslide, but a possible necessity to compensate for rust belt troubles in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Ohio and West Virginia.
2) Whereas the White House strategy there at one time was geared to a failed regime by Gov. Gray Davis (D.), it is now linked to a successful regime by Schwarzenegger. The Governor-elect knows how much he needs the President. The question is whether Bush knows how much he needs Schwarzenegger.
3) That does not mean Bush pouring federal funds into California, and Schwarzenegger’s post-election suggestion of a pork parade was a political mistake that has since been corrected. It does mean Schwarzenegger not raising taxes and also trying to control spending via the initiative route.
