Fall Agenda:
The House has taken care of most of its business for the year, leaving much of the action up to the Senate and the conference committees on key bills.
1) The energy bill conference report should be completed and on the floor by the first week in October. This will not likely be a piece of legislation that could become law. House GOP leaders are happy to challenge Senate Democrats to block an energy bill by inserting ANWR drilling.
2) If the bill is generous on ethanol, the Iowa-sensitive Democratic Senators-John Kerry (Mass.), Joe Lieberman (Conn.), John Edwards (N.C.) and Bob Graham (Fla.)-might pay a price for a filibuster. However, if it contains ANWR drilling, Kerry and Lieberman would need to filibuster to keep their word.
3) Such a bold move, however, depends on the political will of Majority Leader Bill Frist (R.-Tenn.) and the willingness of Energy Committee Chairman Pete Domenici (R.-N.M.). Domenici does not want to send filibuster-bait to the floor, meaning he wants to craft a bill that can garner 60 votes. In any event, if there are not 51 votes for a bill with ANWR, Republicans cannot play this hand.
4) On Medicare Prescription Drug entitlement, the question remains whether congressional Republicans want to pass a bill or create political fodder. A handful of House conservatives are set on killing the bill, and Democrats are afraid to give President Bush a political win. The perception among House conservatives is that any bill that would pass the House would die, perhaps by filibuster, in the Senate.
WTO-Cancun:
The collapse of the World Trade Organization talks in Cancun over the weekend was primarily a result of disputes over agriculture subsidies, and did not come as a surprise to anyone paying close attention.
1) The immediate impetus of the collapse was disagreements over investment rules and antitrust regulations, but the underlying cause was the demand by developing nations that the U.S. and EU peel back their subsidies for crops. Once it became clear that the U.S. and Europe were largely intransigent on the issue, smaller nations had little to gain from the negotiations, and were not unhappy to see other topics derail the summit.
2) In Congress, there is almost no prospect of liberalization of agriculture policies in the near future. In 2002, Congress moved in the opposite direction, reversing the nascent push from the late 1990s to wean farmers off of welfare. The 2002 farm bill increases and expands federal support for farmers.
3) With presidential elections next year, and farm states Wisconsin, Iowa and Missouri as central battlegrounds, neither party is willing to upset farmers by suggesting subsidy rollbacks. There is far more political peril from challenging farm welfare than political benefit by relieving consumers and taxpayers of the burden of subsidies.
4) In Europe, international tensions-especially between Germany and France-make it impossible for EU negotiators to credibly promise any agriculture policy changes. EU enlargement also adds uncertainty to the future of crop subsidies.
5) The Cancun breakdown, ultimately, is only a minor detour for the U.S. trade agenda. The Bush Administration will continue its current course of pursuing bilateral trade deals, which don't involve cooperation with international bodies or with the EU.
Texas Redistricting:
The return to Austin of erstwhile holdout Sen. John Whitmire (D.) has thrown the redistricting ball entirely into the Republicans' court, but that is no guarantee a new map will pass.
1) The Senate has drafted a map that is less ambitious than earlier plans. It would increase the GOP representation in the congressional delegation to 19 or 20 from its current 15. Previous plans-that sparked walkouts-would have likely resulted in 22 GOP seats.
2) In the House, however, it is difficult to draw a plan that would please Speaker Tom Cradddick (R.) and all of the state senators. To prevent a collapse, Gov. Rick Perry (R.) has entered the process. It settles one local problem by creating a new Lubbock district, a new Midland district and tying an Abilene district in with huge swaths of countryside.
3) There is certain to be some objections from a handful of GOP state senators, but with Perry's pre-approval on this plan, some pressure will be felt for party loyalty.
4) A prime Republican goal is to preserve the existing minority districts in order to defuse Democratic political attacks and ward off a court challenge. This means that any of the white Democratic congressmen could be in danger.
5) While local interests and personal feuds could derail the plan, chances are the plan will pass, leaving the Democrats with the courts as their last line of defense.
