Steel Tariffs:
With the WTO meeting in Cancun earlier this month, President Bush is on the verge of making a decision whether to roll back the steel tariffs of 18 months ago.
1) Unlike last year when the Bush team was bitterly divided, all of Bush’s economic advisers are on the same page this time and advise that this was a bad idea. Commerce Secretary Donald Evans, a leader for tariffs 18 months ago, has been under more pressure from steel purchasers than from steel producers. The highly influential Vice President Dick Cheney appears to be in the anti-tariff camp.
2) However, we are informed that President Bush himself has not had the first meeting on this subject and is reported by close associates not to have made a decision. It seems unlikely, however, that he would go against his entire economic team.
3) Administration officials have been pointing to freshman Sen. Lamar Alexander (R.-Tenn.) as making it clear in saying the steel tariffs threaten the auto appliance industry in America. These officials agree with Alexander that the tariffs so far have caused the loss of 200,000 jobs.
4) A rollback of the tariffs will precipitate an onslaught against Bush by organized labor. The tariff decision of 2002, however, failed to soften the anti-Bush posture of Steelworkers President Leo Gerard. This is simply another example of the White House’s vain efforts to win union backing.
Judges:
Conservative lawyer Miguel Estrada’s withdrawal of his nomination came as a surprise, and its fallout may be varied.
1) In the short-term, it is negative for the Democrats’ public image. The filibuster, for a few days, has a victim with a name and a face and a compelling personal story. Democrats have no choice but to publicly express sympathy for this man whose career they have derailed, while blaming the incident on the President.
2) On the other hand, Democrats have now tasted blood, and the immediate Republican outrage may give way to deflated morale. The story of Estrada’s trials during his stay in limbo may discourage other potential Bush nominees.
3) The most concrete consequence is that Estrada will not be on the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals, a stepping stone to the U.S. Supreme Court. His elevation to the high court was becoming increasingly unlikely as the filibuster wore on. However, if this means he is off the list for Supreme Court consideration, White House Counsel Alberto Gonzales-considered more a moderate than a conservative-remains as perhaps the only top-tier Hispanic possibility.
4) Republicans have dropped tentative plans to hold all-night sessions. Such media spectacles would be trying for GOP senators-some of whom are in bad health-and not really put Democrats on the spot. (Only one Democrat would need to be present to block unanimous consent agreements, and he would not be compelled to speak or hold the floor.)
5) The best Republican option may be to queue up as many filibustered judges as possible and run in 2004 against Democratic obstruction on the bench as they did, successfully, with Homeland Security in 2002. No way to break the filibuster presents itself now, as Sens. Charles Schumer (D.-N.Y.) and Edward Kennedy (D.-Mass.) still hold effective control over the Democratic caucus.
Korea:
U.S. officials saw little reason, after the first round of talks over North Korea’s nuclear weapons program, to soften their line. Immediate disarmament and cooperation with inspectors remain a prerequisite to any U.S. concessions or favors.
1) In Washington there is the perception that North Korea, however, as become more amenable to taking the first steps towards reconciliation.
2) Threats from North Korea that they would test nuclear weapons were taken with mixed degrees of seriousness. North Korean threats to abandon the talks were accepted as standard irregular blustering by the unpredictable nation.
3) North Korea is nervous it will lose support of China, its only remaining ally.
U.S.-Japan:
Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi’s unexpected rise in popularity is attributed in part by some Japanese sources to the glowing praise for him by U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow during his recent visit to Japan.
1) Snow, a relative newcomer to the Bush Administration, is following a policy line that dates back to the 2000 campaign. Bush determined he would not follow President Clinton’s example of blasting Japanese policy while taking a soft line toward China. Snow has refrained from any criticism of Japanese policy while voicing total support for Koizumi.
2) Snow has expressed no concern over the apparent Japanese government policy of standing by while the yen goes up. However, there is considerable apprehension on Wall Street about the unintended consequences of this policy.
