Outlook:
Republican members of Congress returned from the August break deeply worried after a month with their constituents and not reassured by President George W. Bush's speech to the nation about Iraq.
1) The 45% approval rating for the President in the Zogby Poll coincided with GOP concerns about Iraq and job losses, plus the dead-end in the Senate judge confirmation-what one GOP senator referred to as "The Perfect Storm."
2) Bush's call for $87 billion in additional spending added to the distress. Only a week earlier, Republican senators had been led to believe that the extra spending tab would be $20 billion less than that. All the money will be appropriated, but there will be lots of criticism.
3) The Sunday night speech was not considered the President's best performance. He handled the problems of weapons of mass destruction and the whereabouts of Saddam Hussein and Osama bin Laden by ignoring them. However, Bush did succeed in emphasizing that the war on terrorism is now being fought in Iraq.
4) The decision to go to the United Nations for a new authorization is a major victory for Secretary of State Colin Powell in his power struggle with Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld. The President's failure in his Sunday night speech to mention Rumsfeld, in Iraq at that moment, was regarded as significant.
5) The President also did not mention the dire condition of the Israeli-Palestinian Roadmap after the resignation of Mahmoud Abbas as Palestinian Prime Minister. The reiterated determination not to deal with Palestinian President Yasser Arafatleaves the situation in the hands of Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon.
Debate:
Democrats spent much more fire on the President than on each other, but their focus on foreign policy suggests trouble for the party's White House hopes in 2004.
1) As has been the case so far the candidates relied much more on negatives than positives in Albuquerque, and aimed their attacks mostly at President Bush rather than each other. Former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean (D.) received a little more criticism than the other contenders, but he was mostly left alone as the attacks focused on President Bush.
2) This negative tone is nothing new and continues to play to Dean's favor. Dean's success to date has less to do with his policy stands, which are no more liberal than much of the field, than it does with his persistence, wit, and harshness in attacking Bush. In the debate Dean continued to outperform his opponents in Bush-bashing.
3) The attacks included criticisms of Bush's management of the economy, but primarily dealt with foreign policy. This line of attack is dangerous for Democrats. Voters expect some degree of unity on foreign policy, and attacks on the President's war and nation-building efforts have a real chance of backfiring. Almost every candidate called for a greater UN and international role in post-war nation building, attacking Bush for his unilateralism. Appeals to turn to the UN for help-or criticism for not being nicer to France and Germany-will not be political winners.
4) This emphasis on war is driven by desperate efforts by the field to catch up with Dean, whose success has stemmed from his attacks on Bush's foreign policy. Most candidates know they need to emphasize the economy, and their harping on war shows a lack of self-control more than a change in strategy.
5) Sen. Joe Lieberman (Conn.) may have gained the most and lost the most from the debate. It was the most prominent airing yet of policy differences, and Lieberman, by his support for the war and his attacks on Dean, has clearly established himself as the moderate candidate. This gives him a niche.
On the other hand, Lieberman likely alienated some primary voters. His high showing in the (nearly meaningless) national polls has more to do with his name identification from the 2000 vice presidential race than his positions or his record in office.
6) Sen. John Kerry (Mass.), understood to be playing catch-up with Dean, withheld from attacking him. Kerry, however, needs to make some sort of move to distinguish himself, which will be difficult in the nine-man field. His campaign is in danger.
7) Rep. Richard Gephardt (Mo.) was the most shrill last Thursday night in his attacks on Bush. This earns him even more love from labor union leaders, but runs the risk of alienating some red-state blue-collar workers, who would otherwise comprise his base.
8) Sen. John Edwards (N.C.) failed to make a big impression, though he did vocally oppose the tax-hikes most of the other candidates are advocating. Sen. Bob Graham (Fla.) continued to remain mostly flat.
