*DEAN’S BIG MO: It’s only September, but far-left former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean has already put himself in perfect position to take the Democratic presidential nomination (see cover story). Recent polls show him leading for both the January 19 Iowa caucuses and the January 27 New Hampshire primary. If Rep. Dick Gephardt (D.-Mo.) doesn’t win in Iowa, his campaign is as good as over. Same goes for Sen. John Kerry (D.-Mass.) in New Hampshire. Any Democrat who can pull off wins in both Iowa and New Hampshire will be difficult, if not impossible, to beat for the nomination.
*DEAN’S NUMBERS: In a Des Moines Register poll of 402 likely Iowa Democratic caucus-goers conducted July 22-29 (margin of error +/-4.9%), Dean had 23% support. He was followed by Gephardt, 21%; Kerry, 14%; Sen. Joe Lieberman (Conn.), 10%; Sen. John Edwards (N.C.), 5%; Rep. Dennis Kucinich (Ohio), 4%; Sen. Bob Graham (Fla.), 1%; former Sen. Carol Moseley Braun (Ill.), 1%; and Rev. Al Sharpton, 0%.
In a Zogby International poll of 501 likely Democratic primary voters in New Hampshire released August 27 (margin of error +/-4.5%) Dean had 38% support. That put him a whopping 21 points ahead of Kerry, who came in at 17%. The rest of the field was rounded out by Lieberman, 6%; Gephardt, 6%; Edwards, 4%; retired Army Gen. Wesley Clark, 2%; Graham, 1%; Kucinich, 1%; Sharpton, 0.4%; Moseley Braun, 0%.
*DEAN’S DOLLARS: Dean campaign manager Joe Trippi told the Washington Post last week that his candidate would raise at least $10.3 million in the third quarter, which ends on September 30. Dean raised $7.6 million in the second quarter, more than any other Democratic presidential candidate. If Dean does top $10 million for this quarter, reported the Post, "he would become the second Democrat to hit that mark in the year before a presidential election." The first was Bill Clinton-who did it in 1995, when he was a sitting President running for reelection.
*DEAN’S DECEIT: Ron Fornier, the ace political correspondent for the Associated Press, reported August 16 that "Dean backed away from his pledge to adhere to spending limits" during the Democratic primary campaign. The limits are Federal Election Commission rules. Candidates submit to them in exchange for receiving federal matching funds (up to a total of $18.7 million) for the first $250 of each donation they receive.
Fournier reported that in an August 14 interview "the former Vermont governor said he did not recall promising to accept public financing and the limits that go with it." "I was asked very early on and I said I didn’t intend to take the match," Dean said. "I think what I said is that we weren’t looking into that as an option." Fournier noted, however, that in a March 7 interview with the AP, Dean "committed" to accept the taxpayer money. "We’ve always been committed to this. Campaign finance reform is just something I believe in," Dean said. In the August 14 interview, Dean said: "Could we change our mind? Sure." One rival campaign accused Dean of "hypocrisy."
*MIDDLE-CLASS TAX HIKE: Speaking to reporters at the Communications Workers of America convention in Chicago last week, Democratic Sen. Joe Lieberman (Conn.), continued his attacks against Dean for being too far to the left. "I disagree with Howard Dean on his vision of America’s foreign policy and economic policy," said Lieberman. "I respect his deeply-held views against the war against Saddam, but I disagreed with him. I respect his deeply-held views that all of the Bush tax cuts should be repealed, but that means taxes will rise on the middle class."
*CLINTON-GORE MODEL: Lieberman believes Democrats today should take the 1992 Clinton-Gore campaign as their political model. "Bill Clinton in ’92, and then joined by Al Gore on the ticket, showed the Democratic Party the way to victory, and it’s by forming a campaign that runs from the center out, that occupies the mainstream of American politics." Candidate Clinton, of course, promised tax cuts for the middle class, then, as President, signed the largest tax increase in U.S. history.
*SUICIDE VOTE: The Zogby International poll reported that 64% of likely Democratic primary voters in New Hampshire said that it either was somewhat (46%) or very (18%) likely that President Bush would be reelected in 2004. This prompted Chris Matthews, host of MSNBC’s "Hardball," to ask pollster John Zogby, "Is this a suicide vote? This vote for Dean?" Said Zogby: "Well, you can’t help but conclude that, you know."
*BUSTAMANTE BUSTS OUT: Looking toward the October 7 gubernatorial recall election in California, the Los Angeles Times conducted a poll of 1,351 registered voters, with a subset of 801 likely voters (margin of error +/-3%), from August 16-21. The poll was completed before Republican businessman Bill Simon dropped out of the race on August 23. Among likely voters, Democratic Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante, at 35%, led the field of all candidates running to replace Democratic Gov. Gray Davis if he is recalled. Bustamante was followed by Republican actor Arnold Schwarzenegger, 22%; Republican State Sen. Tom McClintock, 12%; Republican businessman Peter Ueberroth, 7%; Simon, 6%; independent columnist Arianna Huffington, 3%; Hustler publisher Larry Flynt, 1%; and Green Party candidate Peter Camejo, 1%.
*FLYNT EDGES DAVIS: According to the Times poll, several of the candidates in the California recall race have left an "unfavorable impression" on a remarkably high number of voters. Only Hustler magazine publisher Larry Flynt, however, could edge out Democratic Gov. Gray Davis in that category. In ascending order, the "unfavorable" ratings of the candidates were: Ueberroth, 11%; Camejo, 11%; McClintock, 21%; Bustamante, 29%; Schwarzenegger, 44%; Huffington, 49%; Simon, 58%; Davis, 65%; and Flynt, 79%.
*LATINOS AND PROP 187: Despite the unexamined assumption that the majority of Latino voters in California were turned off to the GOP because of the party’s support for Prop 187, which would have denied state-funded education, social services and non-emergency health care to illegal aliens, the Times poll indicated that most Latinos would not oppose a pro-Prop 187 candidate. Fifty-four per cent of Latino voters said it would either make "no difference" (45%) in their vote if a candidate had supported Prop 187, or would make them "more likely" (9%) to support the candidate. Only 42% of Latino voters said they would be "less likely" to vote for a candidate who supported the proposition. Among Latino voters statewide, Bustamante has the support of 51%; McClintock, 13%; Schwarzenegger, 12%.
