Republicans:
The withdrawal of 2002 gubernatorial candidate Bill Simon (R.) narrows down the GOP field, but the fight to install a Republican governor in Sacramento is still an uphill one.
1) Simon was coming across flat, and he realized that to make any real headway, he would need to run a slash-and-burn campaign against actor Arnold Schwarzenegger (R.). That idea was unappealing.
2) Schwarzenegger is still suffering from a rough first two weeks in which his anointed economic guru Warren Buffett, who is plainly a liberal Democrat, endorsed repeal of the state’s Proposition 13, which holds down property taxes. Arnold’s sticking close to former Gov. Pete Wilson (R.) and his folks have revitalized some Democrats against him while deflating some conservatives. Schwarzenegger simply has not defined himself well yet, and the voters are beginning to demand it.
3) Schwarzenegger, according to a Los Angeles Times poll, is not the Juggernaut he at first appeared to be. Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante (D.) leads him 35% to 22%. Conservatives Simon and State Sen. Tom McClintock (R.) combined for 18%, while former Baseball Commissioner Peter Ueberroth (R.) had a 7% showing.
4) If McClintock had dropped out first, his support could have gone towards Schwarzenegger. Simon’s supporters, however, are far more likely to turn to McClintock than to Arnold. This gives conservatives-McClintock included-a newfound hope that they could win. The new landscape raises to importance the question of how California’s conservative congressmen-led by Rep. John Doolittle (R)-will come down. A Doolittle endorsement of McClintock could catapult him into the spotlight.
5) The Times poll increases the pressure for Republicans to unify behind one contender. Schwarzenegger, McClintock, Ueberroth, and Simon combined for 47% in the survey. If most of that electorate coalesced behind one contender, his victory would be guaranteed.
6) However, it is unclear that Ueberroth is taking more votes from Schwarzenegger and McClintock than he is from Bustamante. Ueberroth has no footholds in the state party and has done little or nothing to establish himself as a conservative of any type in this race.
7) Also, there are many conservatives who simply could not support Schwarzenegger, who is not pro-life, and many more voters who back Schwarzenegger for non-ideological or moderate reasons. In short, consolidation of the GOP vote may be impossible.
8) McClintock could be facing a tough reelection to the State Senate, which would give the state party establishment some sway over him. If Minority Leader Jim Brulte (R.) wanted him out, he could likely force him out.
Democrats:
Heading into a September 4 debate, the Democratic field may realistically be only four deep. Former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean remains the front-runner, with Sen. John Kerry (Mass.), Sen. John Edwards (N.C.) and Rep. Dick Gephardt (Mo.) filling out the top-tier.
1) Iowa still looks like a battle between Gephardt and Dean, while Dean polls ahead of Kerry in New Hampshire.
2) Gephardt may not get an endorsement from the AFL-CIO, which would be quite a feat, but his labor support is stronger than earlier suspected. All of the candidates have strong records of supporting labor interest, making it surprising Gephardt would lock up so much union backing.
3) Kerry is the worst-off of these four candidates. He lacks a niche, and trailing in New Hampshire, he may truly be second-tier.
4) Edwards is not showing strong yet, but he always holds out hope as the "electable" candidate. The Democratic establishment is still terrified of Bush v. Dean, and if primary voters are similarly afraid, Edwards may present the best alternative. His access to funds (through trial lawyers) gives him a good case as the most electable in the field.
5) For Sen. Joe Lieberman (D.-Conn.), the story remains the same: his high national polls are mirages, which will do him little or no good in the primary. First, they are based largely on identification from the 2000 Vice Presidential run, which means they will collapse as voters increasingly pay attention to the race. Second, he lacks a strong foothold in any state-Iowa and New Hampshire are no exceptions.
6) The next question is what will happen as candidates start to drop out. Where will Sen. Bob Graham’s (Fla.) supporters turn? Will Dean absorb the backers of Rep. Dennis Kucinich (Ohio) and agitator Al Sharpton (N.Y.)?
7) Before the debate, Gen. Wesley Clark will need to make his decision. He has a sizable grass-roots movement pushing him into the race right now, but how he would fare as a candidate is not yet clear.
