Democratic:
Former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean is scaring the daylights out of the party establishment.
1) It is not brain surgery. Unless either Rep. Richard Gephardt (Mo.) beats Dean in Iowa and/or Sen. John Kerry (Mass.) beats him in New Hampshire, the Vermonter is home free.
2) Sen. Joe Lieberman (Conn.) has been belaboring Dean as too radical and a non-winner-epithets that seldom, if ever, stop an insurgent candidate. Lieberman’s path to the nomination is unclear.
3) Gephardt is trying to win as labor’s candidate, but failed this week to win an early AFL-CIO endorsement with Dean cutting him off with the left-wing unions. Gephardt hopes that support from 11 international unions will suffice, but that is not the same as the AFL-CIO standard.
4) Now that neither Al Gore nor Sen. Joseph Biden (Del.) is going to enter the field and Sen. Hillary Clinton (N.Y.) never was, the only possible addition to the field of nine is Gen. Wesley Clark. Dean is clearly the candidate to beat.
Alaska:
This remains one of the two toughest seats for the Republicans to retain, but the picture looks a little brighter for appointive freshman Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R.), trying to win the seat in her own right.
Former Gov. Tony Knowles (D.) has launched his campaign. Knowles was elected governor twice, and, along with Sen. Ted Stevens (R.), is one of the two most popular politicians in Alaska. Knowles has twice won election statewide, and Murkowski never has.
Overcoming some of the nepotism charges following her appointment by her father, Gov. Frank Murkowski (R.), whose own popularity is lagging, she has begun building a name for herself. A Republican poll shows her with favorable ratings in the mid-fifties, about the same as Knowles. Her unfavorables are at 15%, less than half of Knowles’ 32%.
State Teamsters President Jerry Hood (R.) has decided against a primary challenge, and the D.C. GOP establishment is increasingly hopeful Murkowski will have a clean walk to the nomination. Murkowski has raised $1 million in the past few months.
This would be Knowles’ first time running in a presidential election year, and having Bush atop the ticket will hurt him. If any Democrat vocally opposing ANWR heads the Democratic column, that will be serious trouble for Knowles. Also, Knowles failed to earn a majority of the vote in both his governor elections. Leaning Republican Retention.
Arkansas:
It increasingly appears Gov. Mike Huckabee (R.) will be the GOP nominee against Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D.).
Huckabee is trying to pull the levers necessary to get White House support for his bid. Former State Sen. Gunner DeLay (R.) has been mentioned as a possible contender, but he currently expresses little interest. Similarly, former congressman and current border security chief Asa Hutchinson (R.) is thought to be awaiting a shot at U.S. Attorney General rather than considering a return to elective politics.
This leaves State Sen. Jim Holt (R.) as the most likely alternative to Huckabee, either in a primary or if the Governor decides he wants to stay in Arkansas.
Holt would have a very steep climb against Lincoln, while Huckabee would enter nearly even with the senior Senator. To Huckabee’s detriment, he has raised taxes in Arkansas, while Lincoln has been generally supportive of Bush’s tax cut agenda. Leaning Democratic Retention.
Florida:
Senate seats don’t come along very often in Florida, and so the stampede of congressmen and state legislative leaders in both parties is not surprising following Sen. Bob Graham’s (D.) decision to run for President.
On the Democratic side, two congressmen, the mayor of the largest city, a statewide official and the most prominent female politician in Florida are all running, with other entries possible. The early fundraising lead belongs to Rep. Peter Deutsch (D.) in his 11th year in Congress.
Miami Mayor Alex Penelas (D.), who is Cuban-American, is the most worrisome to the GOP. Rep. Alcee Hastings (D.) is running, as is the state’s former education commissioner Betty Castor (D.). The entire field will clear out, of course, if Graham drops his presidential bid and decides to seek renomination.
The GOP cast of potentials features State House speakers past and present, two congressmen, and the previous Republican Senate nominee. The two earliest candidates to throw in their hats were Rep. Mark Foley (R.) and 2000 Senate loser Bill McCollum (R.). Many Republicans were displeased with both choices, citing Foley’s less-than conservative record and McCollum’s poor campaign last time around.
Current House Speaker Johnnie Byrd (R.) also could emerge as a serious contender. The field is still shaping up and will likely thin out in coming months. Leaning Democratic Retention.
