The Governor:
Gov. Gray Davis (D.) is clearly in a bad spot, but not as bad as it may seem.
1) Having passed a budget last month, some of the edge is taken off of his negatives-but not much. California is still seen as an embarrassment, and Davis is the obvious goat. The embarrassment about the state and the governor cross party lines.
2) His two best chances to save himself are a friendly media or friendly courts. If the media buy into his line that the recall is a right-wing, undemocratic ploy, this could turn off some moderates and, more importantly, rally an anti-recall base to turn out. This is likely the only way he can survive.
3) Already, the unions and the other arms of the Democratic machine are beginning to mobilize a backlash. The media are starting to ask whether this turmoil and lack of faith in the governor are harmful to California.
4) The effort to save Davis by demonizing the recall proponents suffered a setback with the withdrawal late last week of Rep. Darrell Issa (R.), who had been the sugar daddy of the effort.
5) Davis, if he loses the recall, will seek to litigate his way out of this, and any possible sort of Florida-style contest should be expected.
6) Reports are mixed whether Davis was behind Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante’s (D.) filing. Bustamante will likely take to the stump, calling on Californians to vote "no" on Question A and "Bustamante" on Question B. Some Californians, though, see his entering as a vote of no confidence in Davis. The overt Davis strategy, taken up by the unions, was to keep all Democrats out.
The Challengers:
As of Tuesday, August 12, at least 150 candidates had been approved to run in California, including movie stars, television stars, bounty hunters and Arianna Huffington.
1) Actor Arnold Schwarzenegger (R.) surprised many in California and in the media who put too much faith in early reports that Schwarzenegger would drop out. He got in when he became convinced that ex-Los Angeles Mayor Richard Riordan (R.) was not up to the task. The surprise of the announcement has played in his favor, generating brand new excitement for the recall.
2) Schwarzenegger is the clear front-runner. His name ID, his cross-party appeal, his bottomless bank account, and his meteoric publicity make him a Goliath. His weak points are the accusations that he is not serious or qualified and hesitation among pro-life and pro-gun-rights conservatives.
3) Bustamante seems the only candidate who could beat Arnold if Davis is recalled. Bustamante will have the best access to free media, second to Schwarzenegger.
4) State Sen. Tom McClintock (R.) appears to be the conservative alternative. By earning the endorsement of conservative activists in the state, McClintock may have taken all the air out of the campaign of 2002 loser Bill Simon (R.), also a conservative.
5) Green Party candidate Peter Camejo does not yet have the endorsement of the state party officials. Still, he could draw some votes away from Bustamante.
6) A handful of Republican congressmen, including Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (R.) have lined up behind Schwarzenegger, despite his being to the left of the House delegation.
The President:
The recall was definitely not the handiwork of President George W. Bush or his ’04 campaign team. They would have preferred to see Davis swinging in the wind through the campaign. But now Bush has to make the most of it.
1) The President’s plan is to not go beyond saying Schwarzenegger "would make a good governor." Bush is in California this week for two public events and two private fund-raisers, but plans to stay away from the recall. The Schwarzenegger team, which is looking for independent and Democratic votes, plans, in turn, to stay away from the President.
2) Theoretically, Bush strategists still think the President would be better off for 2004 if a Democratic governor-Davis or Bustamante-were in Sacramento to face the fiscal crisis. But the election of either Democrat coming back from the clutches of death could invigorate the party.
3) The worry on the Bush team is that Schwarzenegger will be elected as governor and fail to cast the blame on Davis and the Democrats for the predicament that he inherited. The potential upside for the President in ’04 is that a rare victory might energize the dispirited California GOP.
4) The stakes are immense in California for Democratic presidential hopes. They expect to win the Golden State, but Davis’s troubles have cast doubts. If Bush carries California, Democrats can forget about the 2004 presidential election.
