Democratic Presidential:
The big news is the rise of Former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean-not just in national polls and fund-raising, but in the circuitous business of actually winning the party nomination.
1) The big shock is a poll of ’00 Democratic caucus-goers in Iowa that shows the presumed front-runner, Rep. Richard Gephardt (Mo.), in a virtual deadheat with Dean. The worse news for Gephardt is that a higher turnout for ’04 would favor the newcomer Dean.
2) A Dean victory in Iowa would not only eliminate Gephardt but also propel Dean, full speed ahead, into an all-New England New Hampshire primary showdown with Sen. John Kerry (Mass.). Another Dean win would make him the front-runner.
3) After just two primaries, would this little known Vermonter be impossible to stop? No, but it would not be easy. If Gephardt and Kerry are written off, the stop-Dean mantle would probably go to Sen. Joe Lieberman (Conn.).
4) The best way to stop Dean is to contend that he cannot beat Bush. But right now, he is rising because he looks to rank-and-file Democrats like somebody who can beat Bush. If Dean does not suddenly collapse, look for a very tough personal campaign against him.
Texas Redistricting:
The Texas House of Representatives passed a redistricting plan, and Senate passage is questionable.
1) The map the House passed is no less ambitious than the one that caused Democrats to flee the chamber and the state in May. It would likely increase the GOP share of the 32-seat Texas delegation to 21 seats from the current 15.
2) U.S. House Majority Leader Tom DeLay (R.-Tex.) is partial towards one of the plans currently being considered in the state Senate. Late this week, the Senate redistricting committee will send a plan to that chamber’s floor, where it will need a two-thirds majority to pass. This involves wooing at least two Democrats-no easy task.
Kentucky Governor:
The campaign is in full swing this early. A Public Opinion Strategies poll last month showed Rep. Ernie Fletcher (R.) leading 46% to 39% over State Atty. Gen. Ben Chandler (D.).
That poll is certainly an overstatement of Fletcher’s support, and Democrats dismiss it entirely. Nevertheless, starting off without a big lead is trouble for Chandler. Kentucky has elected almost exclusively Democratic Governors since the Civil War, and Fletcher expected he would need to play catch-up in this race.
Fletcher is riding the momentum of his huge win in the primary, while Chandler’s nomination was unexpectedly close. With both parties showing unity and lining up behind their respective candidates, this race promises to be tight. Fletcher’s name ID is strong because of his heavy TV buys during the primary, when he spent all of his cash.
The deficit rung up under Democratic control and the legacy of disgraced outgoing Gov. Paul Patton (D.) slow Chandler’s start, but shouldn’t harm him much once voters become more familiar with him personally. Still, the Republican Party shows a little more desire and mission in this campaign: Leaning Republican Takeover.
Louisiana Governor:
The new front-runner in the October 4 jungle primary is Lt. Gov. Kathleen Blanco (D.) according to a recent poll that puts her at 21%. The top Republican is Indian-American Bobby Jindal at 11%. Atty. Gen. Richard Ieyoub (D.) polls third with 10%.
Jindal’s strong showing-polling twice as high as the next Republican-is due in part to strong support from Washington.
Both fields have slimmed slightly to five on a side. More polls closer to the August 21 filing deadline might whittle the pack down even more.
Republicans still fear that Blanco and Ieyoub could finish first and second, leaving the GOP out of the November 15 runoff altogether.
Gov. Mike Foster (R.) is retiring: Leaning Democratic Takeover.
Mississippi Governor:
Mississippi is increasingly appearing like the next stop in the Republicans’ steady conquest of the South.
In the August 5 governor primary, the only question is whether former Republican National Chairman Haley Barbour (R.) will get 75% in his race against trial lawyer Mitch Tyner (R.). Tyner, who has given heavily to Democrats in the past, hoped mostly to abuse Barbour in the primary, but so far his attacks have not stuck.
Gov. Ronnie Musgrove (D.) faces no real competition in his bid for renomination, and he and Barbour have begun debating one another on television.
Musgrove does not start with as much the normal advantage for an incumbent might. In his first election, he collected only 49%, and since then has gone through a widely-publicized divorce. In his favor, he generated jobs by bringing a Nissan plant to the state: Leaning Republican Takeover.
