The President:
Throughout what was supposed to be a soft African trip, President George W. Bush was hounded by questions about his statement in this year’s State of the Union address about attempted Iraqi purchases of uranium ore from Africa.
1) This was not the Bush operation’s finest hour. The uranium statement should never have been put in the address, but the real problem is the confused and belated response.
2) Incompetent though the White House handling was, however, it does not seem to rise to the level of a serious political threat to Bush. Nobody is claiming that the erroneous uranium report was the sole justification for the military assault on Iraq.
3) The bigger problem for the President continues to be the ordeal of a long and difficult occupation of Iraq. Whether or not Weapons of Mass Destruction are ever found, the haunting political question is whether the American people are prepared to accept the death of U.S. troops-at a low rate but projected indefinitely into the future.
4) Meanwhile, Republicans are uneasy about the economy and view that as Bush’s biggest political problem, as it was his father’s. A slowly rising rate of unemployment is political bad news going into the election year.
Prescription Drugs:
Passage of a bill is still highly likely, but no longer absolutely certain.
1) During the Fourth of July recess, Republicans got an earful from their conservative base about the big government bill. That increases the pressure on the Republican conferees from both chambers to retain the market-oriented provisions passed by the House.
2) President Bush’s bargaining position was severely eroded when his spokesmen said he would sign any bill. The President’s experts on Medicare certainly do not share that view, but the political position of the White House is that it is imperative to get the prescription drug bill out of the way. There have been signs that Bush has slightly changed this position, but in fact the White House is very quiet on this issue.
3) The letter signed by 41 Democratic Senators, headed by Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle (S.D.) and Sen. Edward M. Kennedy (Mass.), suggests a filibuster if the House provisions-especially the Health Savings Accounts (HSA)-end up in the final version of the bill.
4) That puts the ball in the congressional Republican court. They are inclined to press for the House bill, daring Senate Democrats to filibuster a prescription drug bill to death. The alternative is the Senate bill, which may pass the House with Democratic votes and a minority of Republicans. Will the President now intervene to lead the party?
California Governor (Recall):
The bid to oust Gov. Gray Davis (D.) is moving ahead largely as planned, but uncertainty still abounds.
1) Rep. Darrell Issa (R.) is the only candidate who is clear about his desire to replace Davis-a job many see as utterly undesirable considering the deficit. Self-financed multi-millionaire Issa’s statewide name ID is slowly climbing, but not all of his publicity is good (specifically news stories linking him with a car theft years ago).
2) Businessman and 2002 loser Bill Simon (R.) may make his second bid for governor in as many years. He has taken no covert action so far (though he is recruiting political aides), and some suspect he is standing back while Issa takes the fire from Davis, a brutal attack dog. Sources tight with Simon insist he is running, but other California Republicans think they can persuade him to head the recall committee, then run against Sen. Barbara Boxer (D.) in 2004.
3) Actor Arnold Schwarzenegger (R.) has not stepped in yet, despite pressure from Washington Republicans as well as an endorsement by former Los Angeles Mayor Richard Riordan (R.).
4) Some Republicans, including Issa, are calling for a statewide GOP nominating or endorsing convention to pick one Republican to put on the ballot with the recall question. This would avoid a split vote and prevent a Democrat from winning with 30%.
5) However, Davis’s strong point is not his record or personality, but his ability to attack opponents. Voters unhappy with Davis might not be thrilled to vote to get rid of him if that clearly meant putting in Schwarzenegger, Issa or Simon. A GOP-endorsed candidate could weaken the recall effort.
6) Republicans worry that Davis, staring down a shame as bad as impeachment, would resign, making Democratic Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante (D.) the Governor and canceling the recall.
7) The decision by all Democrats to stay off the ballot for governor is a sign of support for Davis. But it is so risky that it may not hold.
