Political Outlook:
As the euphoria spawned by the quick military victory in Iraq begins to fade away, complaints from the conservative base are emerging. The Democratic alternative tightens the bonds of Republican loyalty to President George W. Bush. Nevertheless, there are complaints-both off and on Capitol Hill.
1) Tension between House Republicans, who until now have been the stalwart supporters for Bush, has emerged in the fight over the tax cuts and credits (see below). The GOP leadership was furious that the White House was ready to accede to Democratic demands.
2) The deal for a Medicare prescription bill is raising hackles on the right. The Senate plan, approved by the Administration, results in immediate price controls. The Senate GOP leadership contends it can correct this in conference, but that is by no means certain. In any event, conservatives complain that a new entitlement now is inevitable-with the President’s approval.
3) The Senate Republican leadership has not thus far showed the ability or determination to end the multiple Democratic filibusters of judicial nominations. This is a problem that will only grow worse when Supreme Court nominations are made (see below).
4) Nobody really worries about the size of the budget deficit, but the inability to control appropriations concerns conservatives. Neither the White House nor the Congressional Republicans demonstrate the will to control spending.
5) There is less concern on the foreign front, but failure to find weapons of mass destruction in Iraq and continuing casualties there worry Republicans more than they admit publicly.
Roadmap:
President Bush’s entry into the Israel-Palestinian morass indicates a long hard road ahead.
1) Palestinian moderates and U.S. advocates of the Roadmap are worried that Palestinian Prime Minister Mahmoud Abbas is being left hanging in the wind. They feel that Abbas must be given more substantial backing from Bush or he will be neutered.
2) The grade given Bush last week is unsatisfactory. He first assailed Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon’s assassination policy, but then backed away from that after Hamas suicide bombers struck. Not only PLO leaders but Sen. Chuck Hagel (R.-Neb.), second-ranking Republican on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, say Bush must stick to the difficult course of condemning violence on both sides.
3) That is not an easy course for the President. His first attack on Sharon’s policy was not popular inside the Administration or with conservative Republican leaders, and evoked a blast from House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D.-Calif.).
4) Nevertheless, the Roadmap looks dead unless Bush attacks the assassination policy. Ultimately, Sharon cannot separate himself from the American president. No matter what Bush says, the ball is in Bush’s court.
Democratic Presidential:
The power dynamic is shifting slowly in the Democratic 2004 Presidential field.
1) Former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean is rising slowly, but surely, in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. Flattering media attention and growing dissatisfaction with Washington help Dean, who is the most liberal viable candidate. Dean could finish near the top in Iowa and perhaps win in New Hampshire. He is working hard in South Carolina, but the South may be his weakness. Dean hit the airwaves in Iowa last week. He needs to outwork the other candidates, and he looks like he’s doing it.
2) Sen. Joseph Biden (Del.), although he has said he’ll hold off an announcement until the fall, is very close to making a decision on whether or not to run. A Senate Democratic source indicates he’ll throw his hat in the ring. The late entry will not help, but Bill Clinton did not enter the 1992 race until October of ’91.
3) Sen. Bob Graham (Fla.) has not made any big impressions in South Carolina yet, which is a very bad sign for him. He has been flat so far.
4) Rep. Dennis Kucinich (Ohio) cannot win, but he is threatening to make a dent in Rep. Dick Gephardt’s (Mo.) labor base, especially in Iowa. If Kucinich is able to catch on, he could hurt Gephardt.
5) There is a sizable portion of the Democratic base that sees Sen. John Edwards (N.C.) as the most electable. His chief virtue is his perceived ability to raise funds. The critical question is whether he can use that money to hire the consultants and advisers who could make him seem less wet-behind-the-ears.
6) Sen. John Kerry (Mass.) now needs to worry about New Hampshire and Dean. If he is forced to play defense on his home turf, it could slow him down. As the health care debate hits the Senate in full force this summer, Kerry may have a chance to shine.
