Iraq:
Problems, both substantive and political, are mounting in the wake of the military victory.
1) As Republican Senators Richard Lugar (Ind.) and Chuck Hagel (Neb.) had foreseen, the Defense Department had no plans for the occupation of Iraq. Civilian administrator Paul Bremer is a widely respected professional, but he has had to play it by ear.
2) The immediate political problem is the failure so far to find weapons of mass destruction (WMD) in Iraq. This poses a credibility problem for President George W. Bush, both internationally and in domestic politics. Senior Administration officials have said all along that it would be a terrific embarrassment if no WMD were found in Iraq.
3) Democratic strategists want to use the WMD issue as part of a 2004 election attack on President Bush’s credibility. However, the Democrats had better be careful. A Gallup Poll over the weekend shows that, by a 2-to-1 margin, Americans support the attack on Iraq even if there is no proof of WMD. Also, there remains the possibility of WMD turning up.
4) Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz has been quoted in a magazine interview as making it seem that WMD was a mere ploy to justify an attack on Iraq. That is not what Wolfowitz said, but he inadvertently added to Bush’s difficulty on this score.
5) Meanwhile, purported leaks have given the impression that Iran is the next U.S. military target, partly because of WMD. In fact, there has been no change in U.S. policy, and no plans for military action.
Palestinian Roadmap:
The most important part of President Bush’s recent foreign trip was the "peace summit" in Jordan.
1) Bush is giving the signal that he is serious about side-by-side Israeli and Palestinian states, not merely going through the motions for coalition allies. Like his predecessors, the President appears ready to make a maximum effort.
2) This puts Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon in a most delicate position. He surely has made no eleventh-hour conversion on the Palestinian state that he has always opposed. However, he may have made a grave error by bringing Bush into the Middle East, on the assumption that he never would seriously press the Roadmap. Sharon cannot alienate the American President, and so Bush’s support for the peace process confronts the Israeli leader with a problem.
3) Sharon’s escape hatch: the intransigent Palestinian terrorists who will use suicide bombers to torpedo peace negotiations, permitting Sharon to argue that the new Palestinian government has neither the will nor the capability of containing terrorism.
4) The question: Will President Bush let Sharon off the hook by abandoning the peace process? With national Republican leaders eagerly courting the Jewish vote, there will be strong pressure in this direction (without counter-pressure from Democrats). Obviously, this will be decided long after the Jordan summit.
Overview:
The G-8 Summit came and went without making much of a splash in Washington. With terrorism and domestic economic and fiscal issues demanding the attentions of Americans, the trade meeting was of secondary importance.
1) International trade has taken a backseat in the U.S. to national security since September 11. In the world of foreign affairs, both the American people and the government see the primary concern as fighting terrorism, not necessarily working out economic issues.
2) Russia, France and Germany have all had more strained relations with the U.S. since the buildup to the Iraq war began. The perception of the other G-8 nations as unwavering allies has diminished.
3) Related to both of these points is the fact that Germany and France are of far less importance today than they had been. Europe’s willingness to roll over in the trade war makes it clear that Washington does not need to play to these countries. They also have proven themselves unnecessary and unhelpful in some aspects of the war on terror-the top international issue by far to the U.S.
4) The appearance of mended fences with the French and the German is more a sign of American power than any reconciliation. The French and Germans are eager to have good relations with the U.S., and Bush has no reason to deny them the U.S.’s good graces.
5) The Bush Administration stance towards the G-8 is similar to that towards the UN Security Council and the WTO: the White House has no desire to slight the international organizations and wants to allow the foreign and international leaders as much ability to save face as possible. Still, he does not find them very useful at all.
