Democratic:
The first debate two weeks ago in Columbia, S.C.-nearly nine months before any voter, anywhere can make a choice for the nominee-did clarify some of the strengths and weaknesses of the candidates.
Sen. Joseph Lieberman (Conn.): Emphasizing his centrist position by taking the most hawkish posture on the Iraq war of any Democratic candidate, Lieberman gave a polished performance. It remains difficult for party insiders to envision him as the party nominee, however. He is the one candidate that many liberal activists say they cannot vote for against President Bush-probably an exaggeration but still a reflection of trouble ahead.
Sen. John Kerry (Mass.): Presumed to be the toughest debater in the field, he gave a sub-par performance in Columbia-hampered by a scratchy voice caused by too much speaking and hay fever. His continued attack on Howard Dean, aimed at making sure he is not ambushed by his fellow New Englander in the New Hampshire primary, does not make him look more attractive. He was further hampered by virtue of the fact that none of his competitors asked him a question during the candidate-to-candidate Q-and-A period, effectively reducing his exposure.
Rep. Richard Gephardt (Mo.): He is on a roll, with momentum created by his tax increase-national health care plan-the only original proposal to come from this field so far. At Columbia, he looked at ease, in command and far more attractive than the uncomfortable House Minority Leader of the previous eight years. However, the tax-health plan in its present form could be his undoing. Only John Edwards specifically pointed out that this is a big tax increase for lower middle-income taxpayers, but this is an immense vulnerability for Gephardt.
Sen. John Edwards (N.C.): In a state whose primary the South Carolina-born trial lawyer must win, he again did not appear ready for prime time. Edwards may have moved too fast, too soon.
Sen. Bob Graham (Fla.): His first cattle show outing was impressive, as he battles Lieberman to be the candidate of the center and Edwards to be the candidate of the South. He is a distinguished figure and a seasoned, excellent campaigner, but he starts very late and is under-financed. Like Edwards, he must win in South Carolina (where he bombed while addressing the Democratic state convention Saturday afternoon).
Former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean: His 15 minutes of fame may be over, with the war issue fading and his hard side showing. He looked unattractive in pursuing his feud with Kerry in a generally negative debate performance.
Rev. Al Sharpton: As usual, he was smooth and entertaining, but much less incendiary than expected. He has yet to really connect with the African-American vote, which could decide the outcome in South Carolina.
Former Sen. Carol Moseley Braun (Ill.): She was the smoothest voice from the Left at Columbia, and might have been taken seriously were it not for her scandal-scarred single term in the Senate and her poor re-election campaign in ’98.
Rep. Dennis Kucinich (Ohio): Now that the war issue has faded, he was remarkable at Columbia only for taking pride in bringing bankruptcy to Cleveland as its mayor many years ago.
The actual voting is so far off that many twists and turns ahead are likely, but some early conclusions are possible:
1) A path to Gephardt’s nomination by next Valentine’s Day now looks possible. If he wins in Iowa and runs a respectable third in New Hampshire, he could effectively wrap it up by winning in South Carolina. For that to happen, he needs the endorsement of the state’s only black Congressman: Rep. James Clyburn (D.-S.C.), who is reputed to personally control 20% to 25% of the state’s Democratic vote.
2) If Kerry were to score a victory in Iowa, he might be ready for a quick coronation. If not, he must not only win in New Hampshire, but also win there impressively in order to stay alive.
3) Lieberman’s lead in many state polls is illusory-based on name identification and ridiculously high undecided totals. To stay alive, he must get a least some early second-place finishes.
Daniels:
Office of Management and Budget Director Mitch Daniels has decided to leave his post.
1) The move does not come as a surprise, as Daniels has long wanted to go back to Indiana. Also, the frustration of trying to curb the appetites of spenders on Capitol Hill is exhausting.
2) Daniels has not made up his mind as to whether or not he will run for governor. He is leaning in that direction, but former Rep. David McIntosh (R.) touts polls showing he would beat Daniels in the GOP primary for this open seat.
