Iraq:
War with Iraq is unavoidable and inevitable, but the pace has been too slow for political purposes. Momentum clearly has been lost.
1) Secretary of State Colin Powell and the uniformed military have prevailed to force a) the laborious United Nations process and b) preparation of a set piece military attack with 170,000 personnel on the ground. Kenneth Adelman, a close associate of Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld who sits on the Defense Policy Board, publicly declares what war hawks inside the Administration say privately: the U.S. should have struck-unilaterally-long ago.
2) Powell and U.S. Ambassador John Negroponte are reduced to the level of city hall politics in lobbying the UN Security Council for the second resolution that would give British Prime Minister Tony Blair the cover he needs to survive growing opposition in his Labor Party and in the nation.
Prospects are that the U.S. will prevail in getting three Security Council permanent members-Russia, China and France-to abstain and not exercise their veto power, and perhaps win over Mexico.
3) At this very late date, Iraq's Saddam Hussein is trying to reach out to the American people to make his case-the explanation for his interview with CBS's Dan Rather. Typically, Saddam was a public relations bust, with a) his refusal to destroy missiles as ordered by UN inspectors and b) his ludicrous call for a televised debate with President Bush.
4) Bush has not made his argument to the world, especially to Europe. Nevertheless, U.S. public opinion still supports the war-not unanimously, of course, but by a larger margin than was the case in the 1991 Gulf War.
North Korea:
The Bush Administration is frustrated by the refusal by China to help apply pressure on North Korea to back away from nuclear arms.
1) At a time when the U.S. is prepared to go unilateral in Iraq if need be, Secretary of State Powell definitely wants international pressure on Pyongyang from China, Japan and South Korea, along with the U.S. But China is all-important. Although North Korea never has been a true Chinese satellite, Beijing surely would be able to exert some influence on Kim Jong-il-if it so desired.
2) However, China apparently does not so desire. The Chinese give lip service to international pressure on Pyongyang, but is holding back from active cooperation with the Americans. Bush Administration officials see the Beijing regime delighted by the U.S. discomfiture.
3) President Bush's situation with North Korea, though difficult to resolve, is easy to summarize. He has three options in dealing with Kim Jong-il: military action, containment or negotiations. Military action is ruled out, partly because of the dire consequences to South Korea.
Estrada:
As the Senate returns from its recess, Republicans are forced to revisit an increasingly difficult issue-the nomination of conservative lawyer Miguel Estrada to the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals.
1) Many conservatives criticized the GOP Senate leadership for going on vacation with no up-or-down vote on the judge. This, Washington activists argued, betrayed a lack of will on an issue where the left appears firm. The fear is that the right's base will be deflated and the left energized.
2) Indeed, Democrats are feeling emboldened. A vast majority of the phone calls coming into Senate offices are in opposition to Estrada. After losing due to lack of a clear agenda and firmness in 2002, Senate Democrats see themselves finally having a good fight to fight.
3) Meanwhile, Majority Leader Bill Frist (R.-Tenn.) and his leadership colleagues were deflated by the lack of firmness from rank-and-file GOP senators. Forcing Democrats into a blatant filibuster-with all-night sessions broadcast 24 hours on C-SPAN-would require unanimous support of the Senate GOP caucus. That support was just not there. After missing the January recess to finish spending bills, morale was sinking. Also, pro-life conservative groups, citing Estrada's limited record, were hesitant to go to the mat for him.
4) What now? Already the Republicans, while hammering away at the issue, are not ready to "go nuclear." Interspersing debate over Estrada with introduction of non-controversial legislation, Frist is allowing business as usual amid complaints about Democratic obstruction on judges.
5) Since Republicans are unable to use the stick to get Estrada through, they will likely resort to a carrot. In a best-case scenario, Frist could buy off seven Democrats and break the filibuster against the Democratic leadership's will. That is unlikely, given the success so far of Minority Leader Tom Daschle (S.D.) and Judiciary Committee members Patrick Leahy (Vt.), Edward Kennedy (Mass.) and Charles Schumer (N.Y.). These leaders need to be bought off, perhaps in exchange for allowing Daschle to set some calendar items.
