Turns out, to the dismay and frustration of the media and Democrats they represent, the American economy is doing quite well. And this, despite the Iran war spiking gas prices, which is one of the most visible and constant prices Americans see.
The propagandistic narrative is strong and constantly reinforced by the media, spreading like wildfire on social media, which tends to reward the most negative news. Good news just doesn't sell, at digital newsstands or swipey apps. And everyone gets easily stuck in a narrative even when facts intrude. But reality, as usual, is quite different from what is online.
The May jobs report is the latest in a line of strong economic indicators. The experts set expectations for May at 85,000 new jobs. But the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday that 172,000 new jobs were created, more than twice as many as economists expected.
This is the third straight month of strong job growth, which gets an annoyingly short news cycle and not much virality on social media.
But not only were previous months similarly strong; they were later revised upward. Revisions get exactly zippo attention if they happen in a Republican presidency. So here is that data: The number of new jobs in March were adjusted up by 29,000, from 185,000 to 214,000. In April, those numbers were adjusted up a lot more, from 115,000 to 179,000, or 64,000 more jobs. Only a strong economy can knock out these kinds of numbers.
The result of this new jobs haul is that the unemployment rate remains low while job vacancies have increased to the point that there are more job openings than there are people looking for jobs. The BLS reported that job openings increased to 7.6 million, up 4.6 percent from April. This year, job openings increased by 520,000.
But while there are 7.6 million job openings, there are only 7.2 million people looking for jobs. This suggests a strong jobs market. But you'd never know that by consuming the negative nabobs in the media or the social media amplification.
The only area that needs work is inflation, particularly compared to wage growth, which has averaged about 3.5 percent this year, while inflation has ticked up to 3.8 percent. This is entirely due to energy costs, particularly gas prices.
In Trump's first year of this term, 2025, inflation was 2.6 percent, well below wage growth. So Americans were making up ground from the dark Biden years. But gas prices spiking 28 percent this year has driven the inflation rate up. And that is due to Iran.
Which means enough else is in place that, if Iran can be resolved in some way, it can be resolved. Obviously, easier said than done with a duplicitous, terrorist regime that will slaughter its own people for political gain, inflation will drop again, and the American economy will roar.
Yet remember, the last three months of very strong job growth comes entirely during the Iran war period. The foundations are in place, just as they were in the first Trump term until the wild overreaction to the Covid "pandemic" destroyed the economy just in time for the 2020 election.
If Americans vote on kitchen table issues, and they almost always do, and say those are by far the most important this year, then the way forward to greatly improve chances that Trump can retain a supportive Congress for his agenda is to do whatever needs to be done about the Strait of Hormuz. Basically, stabilize global oil flows.
If gas prices return rapidly to pre-Iran levels, kitchen-table voters will look much more favorably on Republicans. Everything else is in place and cranking.
Rod Thomson is a former daily newspaper reporter and columnist, Salem radio host and ABC TV commentator, and current Founder of The Thomson Group, a Florida-based political consulting firm. He has eight children,seven grandchildren, and a rapacious hunger to fight for America on their behalf. Follow him on Twitter at @Rod_Thomson. Email him at [email protected].
