While all the normal midterm headwinds certainly exist for the party in power, plus a few new and annoying twists self-inflicted by Republicans, the GOP has three big, unusual advantages that make this midterm election uniquely difficult to handicap.
First, of course, is the astonishing success of the redistricting strategy launched by James Blair, who is running President Trump's midterm political operations. It looked like that might blow up on Republicans initially, but the courts upheld Texas' redistricting of up to five more GOP seats, and Florida redistricted for perhaps four more GOP seats.
Then the U.S. Supreme Court unraveled a long-running Democrat scam using the Civil Rights Act to gerrymander districts supposedly for minority representation but always for Democratic representation. Democrats lost their minds, and for good reason. Their jig was up.
This is a systemic change that opened the door for Louisiana, Tennessee, and other states to redistrict to gain more seats. At this point, it looks like Democrats will not have to pick up 3-4 seats to take the House, but 15 seats. Not impossible, but a much higher hill.
And all the higher a hill, for the second unusual advantage the GOP has: Democrat candidate quality is uniquely terrible. Their problem is that the more radicalized the party has become, the more radicalized the candidates they nominate.
Two examples suggest Democrats learned nothing from their disastrous presidential candidate in 2024. As the House has become more difficult for Democrats to win, the Senate has begun looking more likely. But two examples of, ahem, problematic candidates show just how difficult their task is.
First, the most egregious is the Nazi-loving, U.S. military mocking, rape-excusing, self-avowed communist Graham Platner in Maine. Platner cosplays as just a blue-collar oyster farmer, who the New York Times swooningly called a "flawed everyman." Well, perhaps in the New York Times' newsroom.
After Maine Gov. Janet Mills, the more centrist candidate, dropped out of the race, Platner is all but assured to be the Democratic nominee. He will face incumbent Republican moderate Susan Collins, who has defied the experts in election after election to keep holding this seat. The elevation of a candidate such as Platner will make it much harder for Democrats to flip Maine
In Texas, Democrats have nominated a whole different kind of weird, fringe candidate, albeit one the media continues to dress up as a moderate Christian.
James Talarico is the Democrat nominee who looks like a moderate Texan on paper, until you read the actual words. He says the Christian faith itself requires abortion on demand for women; claimed on Joe Rogan that the angel who visited Mary for the immaculate conception "asked for Mary's consent;" thinks Christians should support boys playing in girls' sports and using girls' locker rooms; and required his staff to buy vegan in a previous House campaign in Texas!
He thinks white people are uniquely racist. "White skin gives me and every white American immunity from the virus. But we spread it wherever we go." Oh, and he thinks God is non-binary—wild stuff. But the media would have you think that he, like Platner, is just an everyman.
Maine and Texas are two states Democrats hoped to flip in their attempt to retake the Senate. They are essential, given that Maine is blue and Texas has been a bit of a white whale for them for several cycles. But their nominations make both states more challenging.
And then there is the 2024 DNC's "autopsy," which is neither an autopsy nor the DNC's. Sort of. This is making it very difficult to get lefty billionaires to crack open their wallets after Kamala Harris burned through $2 billion in 70 days and still got drubbed.
Right now, the DNC has $14.4 million in cash on hand but $17.5 million in debt. The RNC has $116 million in cash.
So, in addition to the favorable redistricting and Democrats? truly awful candidates, their national organization is in debt and a shambles.
None of this means Republicans will definitely maintain control of both chambers. There remain many challenges to that, mostly self-inflicted. But thanks to one good strategy and incompetent, radical opponents, they now have a fighting chance.
Rod Thomson is a former daily newspaper reporter and columnist, Salem radio host and ABC TV commentator, and current Founder of The Thomson Group, a Florida-based political consulting firm. He has eight children,seven grandchildren, and a rapacious hunger to fight for America on their behalf. Follow him on Twitter at @Rod_Thomson. Email him at [email protected].
