THOMAS B. SAUER to JACK POSOBIEC: Here’s how a strike on Iran would likely unfold

"So the way I would see this going down, you’re going to see eliminating enemy air defenses right away."

"So the way I would see this going down, you’re going to see eliminating enemy air defenses right away."

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The United States and Israel are expected to neutralize Iran’s air defenses and missile sites before moving against broader offensive capabilities, according to Thomas B. Sauer, a military and intelligence analyst, speaking on Human Events Daily on Thursday.

“This could get really hairy really quick,” Jack Posobiec opened, referencing rising tensions over Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs. Sauer said both the U.S. and Israel have invested heavily in intelligence to locate and track Iranian assets.



“And obviously, we’d like to share information with each other,” Sauer said. “So the way I would see this going down… you’re going to see eliminating enemy air defenses right away. Not unlike what we saw back on January 3rd with Venezuela… you’re going to see absolutely eliminating all the radar sites, all the missile sites. But then what you’re most likely going to see is the destruction of every single offensive capability that Iran has.”

Sauer also drew parallels to Israeli operations in southern Lebanon, noting, “They started hitting all these sites, shaping operations again in southern Lebanon. I’m pretty sure… they’re preparing that the next set of attacks can take out all the air defenses. And then once they’re completely vulnerable, take away any and all offensive capability that the Iranians have.”



Posobiec added context from Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who recently noted that Iran’s missiles cannot reach the US homeland but could strike Europe, US bases, and Israel. “Iran doesn’t have intercontinental ballistics that can range the US homeland,” Posobiec said. “But what they do have are short-range, medium-range, which means they could hit Europe, could hit all of our bases within the area, of course, all of our assets.”

Jack highlighted the difference in priorities between US and Israeli leadership. “Netanyahu has been pressing… he wants a full-on regime change,” Posobiec said, while Sauer emphasized, “If our guys know what they’re doing, and last I checked, they do… first eliminate air defenses, then offensive capabilities. That makes it so that the Israelis might not have to defend themselves against very much.”

Posobiec noted US officials, including JD Vance, have stressed that American efforts focus primarily on restricting Iran’s nuclear program.

Image: Title: sauer

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