Spain’s plan to grant residency to illegal migrants could impact more than one million people, potentially far beyond the 500,000 figure previously cited by Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez, according to an internal police analysis.
A report by the National Centre for Immigration and Borders (CNIF), part of Spain’s national police, estimates that between 750,000 and one million "irregular migrants" currently in the country would apply for legal status under the new scheme. An additional 250,000 to 350,000 asylum seekers may also submit applications, most of which are expected to be approved. That brings the projected total to between one million and 1.35 million applicants, reports GB News. Sanchez had earlier stated that roughly 500,000 illegal migrants would benefit.
The CNIF report also cautioned that the policy could create an “international perception of Spain as more permissive with irregular immigration.” Analysts warn this may lead to “secondary movements” from other Schengen Area countries, with between 200,000 and 250,000 undocumented migrants potentially relocating to Spain each year over the medium to long term.
Authorities further predict a possible rerouting of maritime migration flows toward Spanish waters, with sea arrivals rising by as many as 12,000 annually. Spain has not reinstated internal Schengen border controls, unlike Germany, Italy, and Poland.
The legalization measure stems from an agreement between Sanchez’s Socialist party and the far-left Podemos party. Applicants must show they were living in Spain for at least five months before December 31, 2025, and provide proof of no criminal record. Approved individuals will receive renewable one-year residency permits. Applications open in April and close June 30 of next year.
“This is a historic day for our country,” said Elma Saiz, Minister for Inclusion, Social Security and Migration, when announcing the policy in January.
Spanish Europe analyst Javier Villamor previously warned the move could incentivize further migration. “More people would come. Because if they know that only being five months in Spain is enough to be considered a regular immigrant, they will come more,” he said.
A report by the National Centre for Immigration and Borders (CNIF), part of Spain’s national police, estimates that between 750,000 and one million "irregular migrants" currently in the country would apply for legal status under the new scheme. An additional 250,000 to 350,000 asylum seekers may also submit applications, most of which are expected to be approved. That brings the projected total to between one million and 1.35 million applicants, reports GB News. Sanchez had earlier stated that roughly 500,000 illegal migrants would benefit.
The CNIF report also cautioned that the policy could create an “international perception of Spain as more permissive with irregular immigration.” Analysts warn this may lead to “secondary movements” from other Schengen Area countries, with between 200,000 and 250,000 undocumented migrants potentially relocating to Spain each year over the medium to long term.
Authorities further predict a possible rerouting of maritime migration flows toward Spanish waters, with sea arrivals rising by as many as 12,000 annually. Spain has not reinstated internal Schengen border controls, unlike Germany, Italy, and Poland.
The legalization measure stems from an agreement between Sanchez’s Socialist party and the far-left Podemos party. Applicants must show they were living in Spain for at least five months before December 31, 2025, and provide proof of no criminal record. Approved individuals will receive renewable one-year residency permits. Applications open in April and close June 30 of next year.
“This is a historic day for our country,” said Elma Saiz, Minister for Inclusion, Social Security and Migration, when announcing the policy in January.
Spanish Europe analyst Javier Villamor previously warned the move could incentivize further migration. “More people would come. Because if they know that only being five months in Spain is enough to be considered a regular immigrant, they will come more,” he said.
