DEBT DOOM: US, Europe, Japan hit levels that threaten global economy

Economists say persistent high debt leaves advanced economies more exposed to shocks and limits policy options.

Economists say persistent high debt leaves advanced economies more exposed to shocks and limits policy options.

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Debt levels in the world’s richest countries have climbed to historic highs, raising concerns among economists and investors about slower growth, reduced fiscal flexibility, and heightened financial risk.

The United States, Britain, France, Italy, and Japan are all carrying national debt at or near record levels. In several cases, debt now equals or exceeds annual economic output, according to data from the International Monetary Fund, the New York Times reports.

In the US, federal debt has reached $38 trillion, roughly 125 percent of gross domestic product. Net interest payments have nearly tripled over the past five years to about $1 trillion annually, making interest the second-largest federal expense after Social Security.

High debt levels force governments to divert spending away from public priorities such as health care, infrastructure, housing, and education. They also reduce governments’ ability to respond quickly to crises, including recessions, financial shocks, wars, or natural disasters. “You want to be able to spend big and spend fast when you need to,” said Kenneth Rogoff, a professor of economics at Harvard University.

The current debt buildup began during the 2008 financial crisis, when governments expanded spending as revenues collapsed. Borrowing increased further during the Covid-19 pandemic as economies shut down and emergency programs were rolled out. Debt levels did not decline after those crises ended.

Across Europe and Japan, aging populations are driving up pension and health care costs while shrinking the workforce that funds those systems. Governments are also facing large capital demands to modernize infrastructure and invest in advanced technology.

A European Union–commissioned study found the bloc needs roughly $900 billion in additional investment to remain competitive in areas such as artificial intelligence, energy grids, and worker training.

Japan faces a particular strain. Government debt already exceeds twice the size of its economy. Recent political developments, including calls for new spending and tax cuts, unsettled bond markets and pushed yields higher. Economists warn that rising interest rates could expose vulnerabilities after decades of ultra-cheap borrowing.

Higher yields in Japan could also affect US markets, as Japanese investors are among the largest foreign holders of US Treasury securities. Any pullback could put additional upward pressure on US borrowing costs. Economists say persistent high debt leaves advanced economies more exposed to shocks and limits policy options.

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