President Donald Trump would support an independent Alberta, with no strings attached. Not a 51st state, but a sovereign one, like Alberta. That revelation shocked a lot of people and angered Alberta Premier Danielle Smith. Smith, who has been very close to Trump and was invited to his inauguration and to Mar-a-Lago, responded to that overture by saying she did not want "any foreign interference" in Alberta's independence debate.
A referendum on that debate could come as soon as spring 2026. Polls suggest support for separation continues to rise along with western alienation. Independence for the province could well be inevitable as Albertans continue to feel they are being controlled, abused, and extorted by a ravenous federal government that steals their money and doesn't represent their political or social values.
Alberta has always been seen as Canada's Texas: western, business-oriented, socially conservative, but free-wheeling. Texas, it may be recalled, was an independent nation for nine years before joining the United States in 1845. Alberta could be independent as well, but it is unlikely to be absorbed into the Union—either due to resistance from the province or American politicians who would not want another solid red state in the Republican ledger.
Separation in Canada is usually associated with Quebec, which has held two referendums on the issue. The Alberta separation movement has generally been high when left-wing Liberal governments have held sway, but has declined under Conservative administrations.
The separatist movement in Alberta is being led by the Alberta Prosperity Project (APP). They have met with senior officials in the Trump administration on two occasions. And while Trump is unwilling to even talk to Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney right now after the emergence of an Ontario ad that trumpeted President Ronald Reagan's free trade credentials, the APP continues to talk to the administration on a weekly basis.
Jeff Rath is the senior legal counsel for the APP and one of the Albertans who met with Trump's people in Washington. "I was on the phone with them yesterday. We have better contacts with the Trump administration right now than Carney does. Like, that's what I find so amusing about it all of this going forward, right? We're in regular contact with very senior members of the Trump administration on a going-forward basis, with regard to Alberta independence. And, I mean, they fully support it," Rath told Human Events.
Rath released a report in July called "The Value of Freedom" that predicted massive prosperity for an independent Alberta. "An independent Alberta would reshape its fiscal and environmental landscape by retaining $68–75 billion in annual federal tax contributions, yielding a net gain of $44–47 billion after accounting for $22–26 billion in federal transfers," the report reads.
"We believe that over time, a sovereign Alberta could become one of the lowest taxed and regulated nations in the world, rivaling jurisdictions similar to Dubai and Monaco."
Right now, the province pays out about $6 billion every year in "equalization payments." Because Alberta is resource-rich and qualifies as a "have" province, it is forced by the federal government to dispense funds to "have-not" provinces like Ontario and Quebec, which routinely use that money to spend on social programs to bribe voters.
At the heart of the Alberta separation movement is a desire to escape from the tyranny of Canada's federal government, which under both former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and current Prime Minister Carney has followed an anti-fossil fuel green energy policy that has devastated Alberta's oil industry. The province doesn't like Ottawa's woke policies on a host of other issues either.
Carney has utterly failed to get a trade deal with Trump but has managed to introduce three censorship and surveillance bills before Parliament and promised to bring back the odious Online Harms Act that Trudeau failed to pass before the Apr. 28 federal election. That is the legislation that would lock people up for life for promulgating "hate speech" and actually contains a section to punish thought crimes by putting offenders under house arrest if a neighbor complains about what offensive words they might be contemplating.
Carney is also pushing another gun grab in Canada that almost exclusively targets farmers, and that the government's public safety minister admitted —in a leaked private conversation—was all about securing votes in Quebec.
There has never been a better time for Alberta to get out of confederation. "Every time we turn around, Carney seems to find some new way to fuel the Alberta independence movement. I mean, there's, there's absolutely no doubt about the fact that he is the best thing that we have going for us right now."
Indeed, Carney has become a neon sign advertising just how little Alberta needs a federal government that just wants to limit its prosperity and dim its vision.
