President Trump is considering deportation exemptions for illegal aliens who are working in the hospitality industry or agriculture. Those industries have lobbied his administration aggressively for a carve-out because they relied on illegals.
There is a dangerous precedent for this. President Reagan is reported to have told his Attorney General Edwin Meese that his greatest mistake was his 1986 amnesty for the then three million illegal aliens in America, concentrated heavily in California.
Needless to say, Democrats did not hold up their end of that deal to end illegal immigration into the U.S., and within a few years, California went from a red state to a blue state. Look at it now. Whether Reagan said it or not is debated, but the truth is undeniable.
Yet during his recent visit to Alligator Alcatraz in the Florida Everglades, Trump waded towards Reagan's grave mistake, saying illegals who have spent years working here, particularly in the agriculture and hospitality industries, could be granted quasi-amnesty through a new type of work permit making them legal residents paying taxes, but without citizenship. He said the farmers and owners would take responsibility for them, although it is unclear what that means.
"These are guys that are working there for 10 to 15 years, no problem," Trump said. "The farmers know them. It's called 'farmer responsibility' or 'owner responsibility,' but they're going to be largely responsible for these people, and they know these people. … We have a great feeling for the farmer and others in the same position…They can be here legally. They can pay taxes and everything. They're not getting citizenship, but they get other things. And the farmers need them to do the work… Without those people, you're not going to be able to run your farm."
If there is anyone who could defy the gravity of a slippery slope, it would be President Trump. But this is a steeply iced slope because these aren't even the biggest industries employing workers who came here illegally. The construction industry employs more illegal aliens than hospitality and agriculture combined. Agriculture is one of the smaller industries with illegals, according to the pro-immigrant American Immigration Council, which ranks them:
- Construction: 1.5 million illegals
- Hospitality: 1 million illegals
- Professional services: 971,000 illegals
- Manufacturing: 870,000 illegals
- Retail trade: 708,000 illegals
- General services: 501,000 illegals
- Transportation/Warehousing:460,000 illegals
- Agriculture: 245,000 illegals
Construction, manufacturing, retail, and the rest will have the same argument for exemptions as hospitality and ag, some even stronger arguments. Starting this process would risk the very real possibility of gutting a key campaign promise President Trump made last year to deport all of the illegal aliens, something on which the American public very much supports him.
One of Trump's endearing qualities as a politician is that he keeps his campaign promises, a rare quality in any electorally driven system. Sliding down this slope would put a massive dent in that shiny reputation.
Poll after poll shows strong support for mass deportation. Earlier this year, an Axios/Ipsos poll found that two-thirds of Americans said they support deporting immigrants who are in the country illegally. Not just the criminals. All of them. And multiple polls since then show that immigration enforcement and deportations remain the President's popular issues.
And while President Trump says there would be no pathway to citizenship, the illegals will still count in the U.S. Census, and, most importantly, as clarification, there is no path to citizenship right now.
Some terrible day, the Democrats will be back in charge, and they will have a strong emotional case. You can hear them now: "It is just wrong that these workers have been in America legally for years, paying taxes, supporting industries, raising families, sending kids to school, volunteering at their church, but not being allowed to be citizens like their neighbors. It is just wrong, and it is time to correct this."
In five or 10 or 15 years, whenever that dark day arrives with them running the show, you can bet this lofty-sounding message will have support in the polls.
The reality is that these industries do not need illegal immigrants. That's just been the cheap corner to cut to stay competitive.
Without the illegal labor, they will be forced to adapt to new technologies, efficiencies, and, as has already been demonstrated, the Americans who will indeed take those jobs. Market competition suggests that all these industries, as well as the rest, could become more competitive after a period of transition.
And that would ultimately be good for all Americans — if it is not undermined by making a terrible mistake now.
Rod Thomson is a former daily newspaper reporter and columnist, Salem radio host and ABC TV commentator, and current Founder of The Thomson Group, a Florida-based political consulting firm. He has eight children and seven grandchildren and a rapacious hunger to fight for America for them. Follow him on Twitter at @Rod_Thomson. Email him at [email protected].
