It’s truly no exaggeration to say that this one is ‘for all the marbles.’ Whatever party wins stands to gain everything, and whoever loses could be politically wiped out for years.
With the race ending and the national polls showing Harris with only a tiny lead in the polls, the contest is closer than Democrats would like and more uncertain than Republicans might have anticipated. Swing states, as always, will define the election. Pennsylvania, in particular, has become the battleground both campaigns are relentlessly targeting. However, one could argue that the Trump campaign might've been better served by shifting its focus to Wisconsin. In a scenario like this, Wisconsin, rather than Pennsylvania, could actually prove to be the real key to Trump's return to the White House.
At first glance, Pennsylvania appears to be a must-win for both campaigns. It is one of the most populous swing states, and with its 19 electoral votes, it represents the kind of prize that can easily tip the electoral balance. Biden’s 2020 win in Pennsylvania was pivotal, and Harris, with her ties to Biden’s legacy, is betting everything on somehow holding onto it. Her increasingly desperate campaign, aware of the state's importance, has doubled down on harvesting the votes of single women and African Americans in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh.
Trump, for his part, has focused heavily on Pennsylvania as well, deploying rallies in the state's rural counties and moving to supercharge his white working-class base. Pennsylvania, which gave Trump a massive victory in 2016 before slipping back to the Democrats in 2020, remains tantalizingly within his grasp. But that very fact—that both campaigns are zeroing in on the state—suggests that Pennsylvania will be fiercely contested and unpredictable. Neither side can claim a clear advantage, and turnout, weather, and late-breaking news could tilt the balance either way (to say nothing of likely underhanded tactics by the Democrats).
But Trump could have an ace in the hole in Wisconsin, a state that is often underappreciated in the electoral calculus but could be pivotal this time around. In 2016, Trump won Wisconsin by less than 1 percentage point, an upset that shocked the Clinton campaign and the political establishment. In 2020, Biden reclaimed the state, but by a razor-thin margin.
Wisconsin has a unique political culture that makes it ripe for a MAGA-focused strategy. The state is home to a highly polarized electorate, with a sharp urban-rural divide that could favor the new Trump-led GOP. The cities of Milwaukee and Madison are Democratic strongholds, but much of the rest of the state leans Republican, particularly in smaller towns and rural areas. Trump's appeal to white working-class voters resonates deeply here, and the state's long tradition of populist politics aligns with Trump's messaging about elites and the "deep state."
Moreover, Wisconsin’s demographics and political dynamics might be more favorable to Trump than Pennsylvania’s. While Harris is targeting Pennsylvania's suburban and African-American voters, Wisconsin’s electorate is whiter and more working-class, which plays directly into Trump’s hands. The suburban drift toward Democrats that has hurt Republicans in places like Philadelphia’s suburbs has been less pronounced in Wisconsin’s suburbs, where Trump has performed surprisingly well in past elections. Additionally, Wisconsin's African-American population is much smaller than Pennsylvania's, meaning Harris would have a smaller base to mobilize in Milwaukee compared to her efforts in Philadelphia.
In addition, the state has been at the center of the nation's political polarization for years, with highly contentious battles over labor rights, gerrymandering, and voting laws. The fact that Wisconsin has been ground zero for so many of the national political fights makes its electorate more open to a populist, anti-establishment candidate like Trump.
Finally, Wisconsin’s relatively smaller media markets and lower population density compared to Pennsylvania make it a more affordable state for Trump to target. While Harris is pouring resources into Pennsylvania, attempting to eke out every possible vote in Philadelphia’s expensive media market, Trump can quietly but effectively deploy his resources in Wisconsin’s less costly markets.
If Trump manages to flip Wisconsin, it could render Pennsylvania irrelevant. A combination of Wisconsin’s 10 electoral votes with likely wins in other swing states could give Trump an alternate path to victory.
In an election this close, and with everything on the line, Trump doesn’t need to win Pennsylvania to win the White House. Wisconsin, with its volatile politics, populist leanings, and favorable demographics, might just be the overlooked swing state that sends Trump back to the Oval Office and saves America in the process.
