You know the ones.
Where two guys who committed a crime are separated and the first one to flip gets the better plea deal?
As it stands, DeSantis and Haley could both choose to be the first to drop out and endorse Trump, thus ensuring the other is set up for a grueling one on one with the surging former president that looks to be a very uphill climb.
Trump is at 65 percent in the Real Clear Average of polls, neither Obama or McCain hit that number in 2008, neither did Biden in 2020, put simply, for Trump to lose now would be the greatest presidential primary collapse since Ed Muskie broke into tears in New Hampshire in ‘72.
It is important to keep in mind that both candidates are Gen Xers with decades of potential political success ahead of them should they fail to snag the nomination, and in this light, it makes much more sense for DeSantis to be the first to fall on his sword.
The key factor here is that DeSantis remains very popular with wide swaths of Trump supporters in a way that Haley simply doesn’t, he has not yet ceded his claim to be heir to Trump’s populist throne.
Today, if he could get a keynote speech at next year’s Republican convention in exchange for backing Trump it would be a pretty good deal, and a real opportunity.
DeSantis could say that while Trump will be commander in chief, he will be the general on the field, getting the battles won, these are the kinds of speeches in which stars are born, or in this case perhaps, reborn.
For all the talk of meatballs, pudding and high heels barraging the Florida governor from Trump world, the bridges here are still mendable.
This was made clear this week in an X post from none other than firebrand populist Rep. Matt Gaetz saying he looks forward to “all the DeSantis and Trump people being friends again,” after Iowa and fixing their target at Haley.
Speaking of Haley, the case for her to drop out is entirely different, because her approach to the race has been entirely different.
Aside from Chris Christie, Haley is the only candidate left who is running not to be a better executed extension of Trump style populism, but a turn, or return, in a different direction.
From her hawkish foreign policy to her squishy stance on abortion, to her removal of the confederate battle banner from South Carolina’s flag, Haley runs to the middle, echoing the style of the Bushes.
A knock down, drag out fight with Trump, even one she loses badly, would only burnish her bona fides as the leader of the establishment wing of the GOP.
And that wing not only still has significant power, but would need to be on board for any Republican president to effectively govern, as Trump found out in his term in the Oval Office.
For DeSantis, that same ugly battle in the trenches with Trump could leave him so battered and bloody that future national aspirations become untenable.
Part of the reticence to dropping out among DeSantis’s strongest supporters is rooted in the fact he is viewed, rightfully, as a heroic figure who is actually getting things done, from Covid, to education, to protecting kids.
There is palpable frustration over the fact that his parade of accomplishments has not moved the numbers in his favor.
Volumes will be written about the failure of the DeSantis campaign to gain traction, theories abound.
It was too online, it should have officially launched earlier, it should not have officially launched on Twitter, say some, others say, well, he just doesn’t have “it.”
All of these are plausible factors but it might be much simpler, and it might not have a whole lot to do with Ron DeSantis.
It has become increasingly clear that GOP voters, whether they think Biden won fair and square in 2020 or not, see the undemocratic efforts by the Democrats to sideline Trump, either with flimsy criminal cases, or this week, by removing him from Colorado’s ballot as a deep threat to the republic, one that must be stopped.
In that spirit, for voters who like both Trump and DeSantis a vote for Trump has the bonus of sending a message to the Democrats and the deep state that they will not be allowed to deny Trump his candidacy.
Ron DeSantis needs to start thinking about taking the deal.
He can throw a hail mary in Iowa but barring an unlikely blowout in his favor, little is likely to change.
What the heralded Florida governor does over the next month, how he handles the very likely end of his candidacy, will go far to determining his future in Republican politics, for now that future can still be very bright.
