KENNY CODY: Trump’s southern path to victory—Arizona unlocks the electoral map

Everyone knows that Donald Trump became President in 2016 thanks to his destruction of the so-called “Blue Wall.” Trump’s flip of three Rust Belt states that had voted Democrat in every presidential race since 1992 was a political earthquake. Unsurprisingly, most people think that  breaching the “Blue Wall” again will be enough to net Trump the White House in 2024.

Most people are also wrong.

Yes, the signs are encouraging for this strategy…for now. But it’s still just over 10 months until the election. That’s a lifetime in politics. Yes, the polls are giving President Trump consistent leads in states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Georgia. But we all know what polls were worth in 2016. Not to mention, this path to the White House is one that election thieves can see coming a mile away. If Trump wants to be sure of making America great again, he needs to compete everywhere. He needs more than one path to victory.

In a word, he needs Arizona.

Now, I know Republicans aren’t used to competing for Arizona. We all remember the shocking moment in 2020 when Fox News abruptly called Arizona for Joe Biden; the first sign, for many of us, that the fix was in. However, three years later, Arizona remains stubbornly purple territory. A brand-new poll from Tulchin Research shows that in a 2024 rematch, if it happened today, the result would be…a 42-42 tie. That might be shocking in a state that’s voted Republican in 16 of the last 18 elections, but if we can breach their blue wall, then they can breach our red wall. In fact, that proposition looks worryingly easy, given that Arizona trails only Texas as a destination for blue Californians fleeing the consequences of their own votes, and given that the Arizona Republican Party is still filled with John McCain-style #NeverTrumpers who are all too happy to see an America First president fail.

And yet, despite this, Arizona is also the state that arguably birthed conservatism with Senator Barry Goldwater. Goldwater’s legacy lives on today, as thousands of grassroots conservatives will gather in Arizona this week for Turning Point USA’s AmericaFest. Charlie Kirk, head of Turning Point and Turning Point Action, told Human Events:

“Arizona is in a sad state of affairs under the Democrats. Murderers are on the loose, cartels are on the move, fentanyl dealers in front of schools, and I talk to Arizonans every day who say we need Trump back to save our country. At our Day of Action coming up at AmFest this Sunday, we are bringing nearly 15,000 patriots into Maricopa County to tell them that this is Ground Zero in the fight for America, and it might be the single most important county in the US that will determine 2024."

He's right. Not just that Arizona deserves better than being the key to Joe Biden’s second term, but also that the key to stopping that is Maricopa County.

Maricopa is possibly the perfect demographic and symbolic representation of 2024’s swing voting population. The city’s population is well-educated, but not elitist. It is a middle-class city, not one defined by yawning income gaps like Los Angeles or New York. Its Hispanic population is not only big, but is only getting bigger, thanks to the Democrats’ deliberate plan to win permanent power in America by changing its demographics. Yet that plan may backfire: new polls show that Hispanic Americans are more genuine swing voters than ever. If Donald Trump can turn Hispanic Americans into a 50/50 demographic, then he will have turned the Democrats’ demographic victories into their new political headaches.

As Goldwater famously said, “this is a time for choosing.”

Image: Title: trump arizaon


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