With most polls showing her support in single digits for the Iowa Republican caucuses January 3rd, Michele Bachmann will have to make a major decision on January 4th or soon after, does she continue her quest for the Republican presidential nomination, decide to seek re-election to Congress from Minnesota’s Sixth District, or pursue a new career as a TV commentator on Fox News?
Neither Bachmann herself nor anyone close to the three-term lawmaker gives any clue as to what she’s going to do. If, as John McCain did in New Hampshire four years ago, Bachmann makes a dramatic comeback in Iowa and regenerates her presidential campaign, she will be back in the national political sweepstakes.
But if not, she will have some serious decision-making before her.
“Michele certainly doesn’t act like someone who cares about running for Congress again,” said one veteran GOP activist in the Gopher State who requested anonymity, “She seems focused exclusively on the caucuses to the point of proclaiming ‘I’m an Iowan’ in TV commercials. That’s something that Tarryl Clarke [former Assistant State Senate Democratic leader and Bachmann’s opponent in 2010] is probably salivating over using in a 2012 campaign if Michele decides to run.”
The same source, however, would not say for sure that Bachmann is out of the the race for Congress, noting “she was very involved in the redistricting process and insisted that Republican territory from neighboring districts [of Republican Reps. John Kline and Erik Paulsen] be put into [her] Sixth District. That doesn’t sound like someone who is going to retire from Congress.”
Protracted battling in the state legislature over Minnesota’s congressional district lines means that courts will make the final decision on the maps sometime in the spring. Democrat Clarke has dual residences in the present districts of Bachmann and freshman GOP Rep. Chip Cravaack. In 2010, Clarke raised more money that any Democratic U.S. House challenger in the country. Whether she could rake in that much money against a Republican other than Bachmann is unclear.
Should Bachmann not run, there will be no shortage of GOP candidates itching for nomination in the Sixth. 23 of the 24 state legislators in the boundaries of the Sixth District are Republicans, among them conservative state House Majority Leader Matt Dean (who has signaled he will run if Bachmann doesn’t). Also mentioned for the seat are popular radio talk show host Jason Lewis and former State Rep. and 2010 gubernatorial nominee Tom Emmer. (Although generally liked by conservatives, Emmer is widely criticized for running a poor campaign that ended with the election of Democratic Gov. Mark Dayton by a razor-thin margin; earlier this year, Emmer ran for Republican National Committeeman and lost).
The scenario of Bachmann taking to the airwaves on Fox is one that is widely discussed among political junkies and on the blogosphere but has no evidence to substantiate that it might happen. But it certainly makes sense: the Minnesotan is the mistress of the sound bite and the quotable quote, and few doubt she would shine on Fox.
A week out from the Iowa caucuses, no one knows what Michele Bachmann will do after their conclusion. But we’ll know soon—and her plans are likely to be, like her other recent actions, a major news story.
