President Obama is in trouble. There is no doubt about it. But the data that currently exists in the polls should give conservatives and Republicans a sense of urgency rather than the smell of victory.
The President has doubled down his effort to boost the economy with the same old polices that have not seemed to work. Drawing a clear contrast politically come election time as to who has the best ideas and policies—ones that are capable of turning around the dismal economy. The message that will be propelled is clear: “Tax the rich. They can afford it, and the Republican opponent wants to give them more money while you struggle.” Notice there is no real grounded policy in this statement that will be used by Obama. Unfortunately, most of America doesn’t care. Fancy speeches and witty lines win elections. Policy merely dictates how history judges you. Republicans need to understand this if there is hope for 2012.
We know the policy differences, but what matters come election time, even more than the message, is the messenger and the way policy is communicated if Republicans want a chance to win the White House in 2012. The fact of the matter is that bogged-down policy speeches don’t drum up support with the everyday citizen, thereby garnering votes. People want a witty line that evokes emotion, points out the obvious, and makes them feel as though “this way” is the only logical way to go. For example, Mitt Romney’s seven-point economic policy, although great, doesn’t give a citizen the wow factor. I have heard them listed in two debates now and can't remember a single one off the top of my head.
Current presidential polling that shows the President’s approval rating hovering around 44% seems to suggest that he is all but a lame duck, loser President, who is no longer welcome and needs to be shown the door like the drunk guest at a cocktail party that ended an hour ago.
People are disgusted with the way the President handled health care by shoving a new government mandate down the citizenry’s throats. They don’t like how he claims to strive to make Washington bipartisan for the good of the American people yet seems to be the most partisan President in the history of the modern age.
The examples could go on and on as to how, why, and in what ways the President has lost America with his policies. These are exactly why the President has the job approval ratings that he currently has. His policies have not helped ordinary Americans. People are not proud to be Americans post-9/11 like they were under Reagan, and even in World War II, when the economy was worse than it is now.
But the question remains: Can a Republican beat Obama in 2012? All indications lead one to assume that he can be beat. But conservatives and Republicans alike need to know and understand that this race is far from in the bag.
Currently, no poll has any of the current GOP candidates beating Obama in a 2012 general election. Sure, some polls have Romney besting Obama and likewise with Perry. However, all of these recent polls are within the margin of error suggesting nothing more than a close, competitive, race.
Policy matters. It is what makes America succeed and has made her great. Unfortunately however, policy doesn’t win elections. Oratory, slogans and popularity do. It is an unfortunate fact in presidential elections.
President Obama, regardless of his horrible job approval ratings, is still extremely liked as a person. This is dangerous for 2012, because people want to vote for a person they like rather than a person whose policies resonate with them (please see Obama vs. McCain 2008). In fact, people will send horrible politicians and people, even crooks, to Washington merely because they like them as a person. It shouldn’t be this way … but it is.
Obama is liked personally. Most of America didn’t like the proposals he made in the 2008 election campaign, and his policies have failed. Yet he got elected. McCain on the other hand, had stronger policies yet he was not as well-liked.
The GOP candidate who understands what Americans want to hear, and conveys it in a sharp and witty way, stands the best chance. The candidate that does this and has better policy (as all of them do) will be the next President of the United States. Let's hope that the GOP field is cognizant of this. Or America will be doomed for another four years.
