Washington, DC
Vol. 41, No. 22b
To: Our Readers
- Kerry remarks could stoke turnout among GOP base
- We see Democrats capturing the House, falling just short in the Senate
- Allen's attacks may be backfiring
- Republicans positive about retaining Foley's seat
- Democrats on pace to pick up six governorships
Outlook
- Going into the last week of the campaign, there is no sign of a Democratic wave or a Republican wave. It still looks like a good day for Democrats looming on November 7, but not necessarily a catastrophe for Republicans.
- Republicans worry about a bad message being given by the attention on Michael J. Fox's peripatetic campaigning for Democrats spotlighted by Rush Limbaugh's attack on him. Ridiculing the frailty of a sympathetic figure, no matter how uninformed his political ventures, is almost certain to backfire.
- Similarly, President George W. Bush's increasingly vigorous campaigning with attacks on Democrats may be playing into Democratic hands by tending to "nationalize" the mid-term elections. Republican strategists have stressed localizing contests and opposing Democratic efforts to localize them.
- Can the antics of Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) reverse these favorable Democratic trends? See a detailed analysis below.
- Look for tight Senate races in Missouri, Montana and possibly Virginia to determine control of the Senate. Republicans have an outside chance to take a Democratic seat in two states: New Jersey and Maryland.
- Kerry, addressing a crowd of Democrats in California on the topic of education, tied in the Iraq War by bringing up the long-standing complaint by some on the left that the military preys upon poor and uneducated youths in their recruitment. "You know, education, if you make the most of it, if you study hard and do your homework, and you make an effort to be smart, uh, you can do well. If you don't, you get stuck in Iraq." That is a slightly meaner version of what several Democratic members of Congress have been saying for years.
- Republicans were delighted when the remarks came to light and drew somber rebukes from the White House and from several Republican politicians, especially Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.). It was shaping up as a motivator for a disillusioned Republican base, when Kerry issued an angrily written statement, apparently hastily written, aimed at "right-wing nut jobs" who were criticizing him.
- In sum, Kerry said something he shouldn't have (nothing an apology could not have mended), but then gave his strident response to the criticism, which may have dealt a blow to Democrats and a death-blow to Kerry's political future. Kerry's extremely angry, aggressive follow-up presentation was so lacking in contrition that he made matters worse. As House Majority Leader John Boehner (R-Ohio) put it in a television interview, "He'd better apologize, or we're gonna beat him to death over this one."
- Kerry still believes that his failure to respond quickly and aggressively to the attacks on his military record in 2004 cost him the presidency. He has taken so much grief from Democrats over his failure to stand up for himself and for liberal ideas that he felt the need to act decisively yesterday. That is what brought on his extremely ill-considered behavior.
- Kerry's explanation - that his original comment was meant as a jab at President Bush - was lost in a sea of angry anti-Bush rhetoric. The explanation also falls flat because his remarks are so clearly in line with accepted left-wing positions. If Kerry's fear was that Republicans would divert attention away from a failed Iraq policy, he managed only to give extra life to the news story that will indeed divert it. Whatever the truth at the heart of it all, the story going into the final week of the election is about John Kerry, who insulted the troops, refused to apologize, and erupted in a defiant televised speech.
- How much damage will this cause Democrats? It unquestionably knocks them off their message, and it may even poison the well with respect to remarks critical of the Iraq War. Kerry's angry denial that he would ever speak ill of the troops brings back memories from 2004 - specifically his 35-year-old testimony that his comrades in Vietnam were murderers and rapists. More immediately, Democratic candidates all over the country will now be asked whether Kerry owes an apology, which is a no-win proposition no matter how it is answered.
- But the real damage will come in the form of increased Republican base turnout. Their old boogeyman has returned from the dead. What could be more effective in motivating disillusioned conservatives to vote next week than the sight of a defiant John Kerry insulting the troops and angrily refusing to apologize? We are told that the ads are already being cut and the mailers printed as we write. The effect will remain unknown until next week.
Republican-Held Senate Seats In Play |
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Likely Republican Retention |
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Likely Democratic Takeover |
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Leans GOP |
Leans Dem |
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Arizona (Kyl) |
Missouri (Talent) |
Montana (Burns) |
Ohio (DeWine) |
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Tennessee (Open [Frist]) |
Rhode Island (Chafee) |
Pennsylvania (Santorum) |
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Virginia (Allen) |
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Democrat-Held Senate Seats In Play |
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Likely Democratic Retention |
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Likely Republican Takeover |
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Leans Dem |
Leans GOP |
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Minnesota (Open [Dayton]) |
Maryland (Open [Sarbanes]) |
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Nebraska (Nelson) |
Michigan (Stabenow) |
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Vermont (Open [Jeffords]) |
New Jersey (Menendez) |
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Washington (Cantwell) |
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West Virginia (Byrd) |
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Many black Democrats, feeling shut out of the state Democratic Party's leadership after a fractious primary, may decide not to vote. Others have been turned off by injudicious remarks by white Democrats in the state.
Cardin, meanwhile, has had a terrible week. He was clobbered in one debate and performed just adequately in another. On Monday, a group of prominent black Democratic leaders in Prince George's County announced their support for Steele. Cardin can take nothing for granted at this point. All of the momentum is with Steele, even though he still has an uphill climb in a blue state and in a Democratic year. Leaning Democratic Retention.
Bouchard trails by at least seven points, but this one will end up closer than anyone thinks right now. Leaning Democratic Retention.
The reason can be found in an 11th-hour Burns television ad on the issue of taxes. Thanks to a late infusion of additional cash from Washington, Burns is pounding away at Tester's tax policies as too liberal for Montana. This huge, sparsely populated state is a microcosm of this mid-term election's national political chess game. Democrats want the election to be a referendum on Burns, while Republicans want a choice between Burns and Tester.
All internal polling has ceased in this race, and public polls have Tester slightly ahead but within the margin of error. Leaning Democratic Takeover.
One can certainly blame Allen's opponent, former Navy Secretary Jim Webb (D), who has launched his own personal attacks through surrogates. But the final blow to any seriousness in this race was Allen's criticism last week of the disturbing and racy scenes in Webb's novels.
We believe that this attack may be backfiring against Allen and that the effects are being seen in the latest polls, both of which have Webb leading. It is much easier to dump an incumbent in a circus campaign than it is in a serious campaign. We see here shades of the same miscalculations made by Jerry Kilgore (R) as he lost to Gov. Tim Kaine (D) last year after running highly negative ads that backfired.
George Allen, once a leading candidate for President, is on the verge of losing his Senate seat, and possibly Republican control of the Senate. Leaning Democratic Takeover.
Republican-Held House Seats In Play |
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Likely Republican Retention |
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Likely Democratic Takeover |
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Leans GOP |
Leans Dem |
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AZ-1 (Renzi) |
CA-11 (Pombo) |
CT-2 (Simmons) |
AZ-8 (Open [Kolbe]) |
AZ-5 (Hayworth) |
CO-4 (Musgrave) |
CT-4 (Shays) |
CO-7 (Open [Beauprez]) |
CA-50 (Bilbray) |
CO-5 (Open [Hefley]) |
CT-5 (Johnson) |
IA-1 (Open [Nussle]) |
FL-8 (Keller) |
FL-16 (Open [Foley]) |
FL-13 (Open [Harris]) |
IN-8 (Hostettler) |
KY-2 (Lewis) |
FL-22 (Shaw) |
IN-2 (Chocola) |
NC-11 (Taylor) |
KY-3 (Northup) |
ID-1 (Open [Otter]) |
IN-9 (Sodrel) |
OH-18 (Open [Ney]) |
NY-19 (Kelly) |
IL-6 (Open [Hyde]) |
NH-2 (Bass) |
PA-7 (Weldon) |
PA-4 (Hart) |
KY-4 (Davis) |
NM-1 (Wilson) |
PA-10 (Sherwood) |
TX-23 (Bonilla) |
MI-7 (Open [Schwarz]) |
NY-24 (Open [Boehlert]) |
TX-22 (Open [DeLay]) |
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MN-6 (Open [Kennedy]) |
NY-29 (Kuhl) |
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NE-3 (Open [Osborne]) |
OH-15 (Pryce) |
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NV-2 (Open [Gibbons]) |
PA-6 (Gerlach) |
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NV-3 (Porter) |
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NY-20 (Sweeney) |
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NY-25 (Walsh) |
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NY-26 (Reynolds) |
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OH-1 (Chabot) |
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OH-2 (Schmidt) |
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PA-8 (Fitzpatrick) |
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VA-2 (Drake) |
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WA-8 (Reichert) |
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WI-8 (Open [Green]) |
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WY-AL (Cubin) |
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Democratic-Held House Seats In Play |
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Likely Democratic Retention |
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Likely Republican Takeover |
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Leans Dem |
Leans GOP |
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IA-3 (Boswell) |
GA-8 (Marshall) |
GA-12 (Barrow) |
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IL-17 (Open [Evans]) |
IL-8 (Bean) |
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IN-7 (Carson) |
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LA-3 (Melancon) |
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OH-6 (Open [Strickland]) |
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OH-13 (Open [Brown]) |
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OR-5 (Hooley) |
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PA-12 (Murtha) |
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SC-5 (Spratt) |
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TX-17 (Edwards) |
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VT-AL (Open [Sanders]) |
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WV-1 (Mollohan) |
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Her get-out the vote operation is reportedly the most active of the three endangered Republicans in Connecticut, and her new ad attacking Murphy is humorous and effective, but it may represent her last Hail Mary push. Johnson has always been on difficult turf, and her time to make a comeback is running out fast. Leaning Democratic Takeover.
The NRCC is spending money here to make up for the many seats they expect to lose elsewhere. Leaning Republican Takeover.
Then again, Hostettler has never campaigned like anyone else, and if he somehow won, this would not be the first time he's been wrongly counted out early. Likely Democratic Takeover.
The Democratic candidate in this race, organic farmer Sharon Renier, has no money and the district is heavily Republican. If this seat goes to the Democrats, it is a sign of a tsunami. Leaning Republican Retention.
But Republicans have ramped up the number of 72-hour campaigners in the district to 100. They have knocked on enough doors and made enough calls already that by Election Day they will have contacted voters to win the race, even if no one else votes for Porter. Leaning Republican Retention.
Madrid, who had been in a position to put the race away, looked so awful in a recent debate that Wilson has cut an ad from it that is now running. Its effect has been simply devastating. Madrid, standing at her podium, appears to be at a total loss after being asked a question about taxes.
This race is definitely back in play. Republicans claim an unprecedented midterm rate of early voting here, with 22,000 core Republicans casting early ballots, almost as many as in the 2004 presidential year. Wilson probably wins this one narrowly if she can get 92,000 votes in all - and she wins handily if she racks up 95,000 or more. Leaning Democratic Takeover.
Republican-Held Governorships In Play |
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Likely Republican Retention |
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Likely Democratic Takeover |
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Leans GOP |
Leans Dem |
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CA (Schwarzenegger) |
AK (Open [Murkowski]) |
MD (Ehrlich) |
AR (Open [Huckabee]) |
CT (Rell) |
MN (Pawlenty) |
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CO (Open [Owens]) |
FL (Open [Bush]) |
NV (Open [Guinn]) |
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MA (Open [Romney]) |
GA (Perdue) |
RI (Carcieri) |
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NY (Open [Pataki]) |
HI (Lingle) |
TX (Perry) |
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OH (Open [Taft]) |
SC (Sanford) |
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Democrat-Held Governorships In Play |
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Likely Democratic Retention |
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Likely Republican Takeover |
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Leans Dem |
Leans GOP |
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AZ (Napolitano) |
IA (Open [Vilsack]) |
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KS (Sebelius) |
ME (Baldacci) |
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PA (Rendell) |
MI (Granholm) |
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OK (Henry) |
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OR (Kulongoski) |
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WI (Doyle) |
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Sincerely, |
Robert D. Novak |