Novak Nails the Texas Primaries

Two days ago, as liberal bloggers were anticipating an upset of Democratic Rep. Henry Cuellar in Texas’ 28th District, esteemed Washington journalist Robert Novak (and his sidekick David Freddoso) predicted Cuellar would coast to victory by 10 points.

So who got it right?

Novak, of course. Writing in a special edition of the Evans-Novak Political Report on Monday, Novak gave Cuellar a generous point spread that was nearly dead-on correct. Cuellar beat former Rep. Ciro Rodriguez by 12 percentage points; Novak said it would be 10 points.

Novak also nailed the two other closely watched races in Texas.

  • Rep. Tom DeLay fought off a challenged from minor-league contenders in the 22nd District, doing about as good as Novak said he needed to do in order to get a boost in his race against Democrat former Rep. Nick Lampson this November. DeLay finished with 62% of the vote.
  • In Texas’ 17th District, Novak correctly called the race for Van Taylor, the Republican military veteran who defeated former Capitol Hill staffer Tucker Anderson by a 54%-to-46% margin.

For those of you keeping score at home, this makes Novak 19 for 23 in races he’s called since the beginning of 2005. That’s an .826 batting average. And bear in mind that unlike others, Novak calls EVERY race one way or the other — none of this "toss-up" nonsense.

Here’s the breakdown:

OH-2 Special Primary N
OH-2 Special General Y
Colo. Ref. C N
Colo Ref. D Y
Va. Governor Y
Va. Atty. Gen. Y
Va. Lt. Governor Y
Detroit Mayor N
St. Paul Mayor Y
NYC Mayor Y
N.J. Governor Y
Ohio Issue 4 Y
Calif. Prop 73 N
Calif. Prop 74 Y
Calif. Prop 75 Y
Calif. Prop 76 Y
Calif. Prop 77 Y
Tex. Marriage Amdt. Y
Maine People’s Veto Y
CA-48 Special Y
TX-17 Primary Y
TX-22 Primary Y
TX-28 Primary Y