2006 or Bust.
The New York Times reports that Hillary has officially decided to run for a second term in the Senate in 2006. The disclosure of her re-election plans seemed intended to stop rising speculation among Democrats, especially in the aftermath of John Kerry's defeat, that she might need to forgo the Senate race to focus entirely on running for the White House. After all, only a handful of politicians have ascended to the presidency directly from the Senate or House. In addition, a Senate race in 2006 could be potentially damaging since she will be bombarded by demands from Republicans to promise to serve out her term if re-elected, and she may face a difficult campaign against Rudy Giuliani, George Pataki, or other prospective Republicans, especially if they "try to maneuver her into taking positions that might prove damaging in a national race."
One close congressional ally said that if Hillary runs for re-election, "the whole Republican apparatus" will focus on knocking her off in 2006 so long as she is a potential presidential contender. Time will also be short, as the Iowa caucuses will be held just 14 months after her Senate election. If Hillary follows the schedule that Kerry followed, she would most likely have to signal her intention to run for President one month after completing her Senate campaign. Hillary's advisors are particularly sensitive about the "promising to finish out her Senate term" question, as her husband famously vowed to serve out his four-year term as Arkansas governor in 1990, only to break his pledge in 1992 to run for President.
Mrs. Clinton's advisors say that she is unlikely to follow in her husband's footsteps, and may actually model any answers after what Gov. George W. Bush said when he ran for re-election as governor of Texas in 1998. Gov. Bush was forthright about the possibility of leaving for the presidency, and told his fellow Texans, "I don't know whether I'll seek the presidency or not," but "if that bothers you when you go into the voting booth, then make that part of your consideration."
It would be surprising, however, if Hillary-a congenital lawyer-will be quite as straightforward with the people of New York.
Hillary vs. the General.
Last week it was noted that New York Republicans might be interested to urging Condoleezza Rice to run against Hillary in 2006. But now that Ms. Rice has been named by President Bush as Secretary of State Colin Powell's successor, that plan went out the window. However, as the saying goes, when one door closes another opens.
Now Republicans are hopeful that Gen. Powell will oppose Hillary in two years. Rep. Vito Fossella wrote a letter to Powell, deeming it a "call to duty," asking the popular Republican to consider running for the Senate from New York in 2006. Needless to say, Republicans are excited about the potential match-up between Hillary and the venerated, first-generation American, black soldier/diplomat. "You could sell tickets to this one," said Rep. Peter King, saying that Powell is "a war hero, a world-class diplomat, born and raised in New York. . . a guy who came from the streets of the Bronx to the corridors of power throughout the world." Another prominent New York congressman, Rep. James Walsh, called the idea "brilliant." Powell was born in Harlem, raised in the South Bronx, and attended public schools and college in New York, so his ties to the state blow Hillary's out of the water. Whether Mr. Powell and his family are up for the rigors of a statewide campaign is another question. In addition, New York has a historical precedent of a distinguished Cabinet member failing in a bid to win elective office, as Arthur Goldberg, who was secretary of labor under President Kennedy, Supreme Court justice and ambassador to the United Nations under President Johnson, was nevertheless crushed at the polls when he tried to take on incumbent Gov. Nelson Rockefeller in 1970. For his part, when he announced his resignation Powell said he looked forward to returning to private life and that he did not know what he'd do next, and Rep. Fossella declined to disclose the secretary's response to their telephone conversation.
