Post-War Policy:
The quick collapse of Saddam Hussein's regime raises big questions, domestically and internationally, as the political community begins to zero in on the 2004 presidential campaign.
Domestic:
Will the end of uncertainty over victory in Iraq finally unleash the American economy and guarantee the reelection of President George W. Bush?
1) The President and his inner circle are not burdened with the illusions that made his father a one-term president. The younger Bush knows that the popularity generated by the war would dissolve in a double-dip recession.
2) That is why Bush was on the road last week trying to build support for his beleaguered tax bill. This, too, is in sharp contrast to the senior Bush, who didn't even have a tax bill to push.
3) Nevertheless, the Bush tax bill is a growth measure, not a stimulus bill, and senior officials in the administration privately admit its passage will not provide an immediate boost for the economy.
4) The hope has been that a short war, after the long period of uncertainty, will unfreeze business investments and boost the economy. That has not happened yet. As a leading indicator, the stock market seems relatively passive.
5) Bush's big plus is the inability so far of any of the Democratic candidates to rise above the pack with an appealing agenda. The proposal by Rep. Richard Gephardt (D.-Mo.) to roll back the Bush tax cut and provide tax credits for corporate health is daring, dangerous and probably damaging.
6) Now that the war is over, Democrats will increase the volume of their attacks on the President, but as 2002 showed: attacking the President without proposing an attractive alternative is worthless politically.
Foreign:
Does the U.S. conquest of Iraq connote victory in a self-contained war or merely winning one battle (actually, the second battle after Afghanistan) of a much longer struggle?
1) Even before the last vestiges of Iraqi resistance had succumbed, President Bush, Secretary of State Colin Powell and Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld were threatening Syria. As U.S officials admitted privately, they were just trying to frighten the Damascus regime, and they certainly succeeded. The overriding message from Washington: This war continues.
2) The signal from Washington is that this is not just a war on terrorism but an effort to revise the political climate of the entire Middle East. The pressure is on not only Syria but Iran and to a certain degree even longtime friends of Washington-Saudi Arabia and Egypt. Rumsfeld, backed by his former aide, Vice President Dick Cheney, has the bit in his teeth on this, and is dominating policy.
3) The pro-Israeli civilian staff at the Pentagon not only is controlling Iraq but doing it in a way that cannot please Powell. Lt. Gen. Jay Garner (ret.), the military governor, is closely tied to Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon. Rumsfeld brought exile leader Ahmad Chalabi to Iraq over Powell's objection and without informing him.
4) However, the real test is the question of Israeli-Palestinian peace, which Powell-but not Rumsfeld-considers essential to peace in the region. Sharon wants no part of it, and already has submitted a list of killer amendments to Bush's road map for peace. All eyes are on President Bush to see what direction he will take.
Judges:
In the stalemate over President Bush's judicial nominees, Democrats seem to be prevailing, feeding conservative concerns over the future of the U.S. Supreme Court.
1) In weekly policy meetings, many Republican senators grumble about the continual battle on judges, objecting that the issue is not a political winner or a policy priority. They fear the judge fight distracts from budget, energy and other issues.
2) In a change of pace from the days of Trent Lott (R.-Miss.) the calls for surrender are coming not from the top down, but from rank-and-file members leaning on Frist to move on.
3) The grumbling comes not only from liberal Republicans unenthusiastic about conservative judges, but also from committee chairman eager to focus more attention on their own legislation.
4) The filibuster-caused backlog now includes D.C. lawyer Miguel Estrada and Texas Supreme Court Justice Priscilla Owen, both nominated to appellate courts. Sen. Ted Kennedy (D.-Mass.) has directed his party's leaders to cause this backlog as a tactic in the battle to block any conservative nominee to the U.S. Supreme Court, and to prevent President Bush from remodeling the federal judiciary.
