Postwar:
President Bush's decision to give the Pentagon authority over the Iraqi occupation is widely criticized, but it will stand.
1) Secretary of State Colin Powell and Deputy Secretary Richard Armitage would have preferred the lines of authority running through them, but they are good soldiers and will not balk at it. Congress, too, would prefer State in charge, but this is a presidential decision.
2) Powell is totally in agreement with Rumsfeld that the United Nations Security Council, having refused to authorize the war, should not be in charge of the occupation. Bush and British Prime Minister Tony Blair, meeting in Belfast yesterday, agreed on a secondary role for the UN.
3) The bigger dispute is over the broad U.S. global posture, rather than narrow Iraqi policy. Powell believes that some international fence mending is badly needed by the U.S., with the need to proceed forth with Bush's road map for a Palestinian state. The Pentagon tends toward a more muscular view, putting pressure on other Arab states (starting with Syria). The presumption is that Bush will side with Powell, but nobody is certain.
4) The Army's complaint that Rumsfeld fell short in allocating ground troops was overridden by massive use of air power. In Army circles, fear that outnumbered U.S. troops might be encircled by Hussein's forces was real, but the total U.S. command of the air prevented a catastrophe.
Home Front:
The domestic reaction to military victory is a big political boost for President Bush, but not a commensurate surge of support in Congress.
1) The President has not matched the unrealistically astronomical ratings of his father after the first Gulf War, but the 70% approval for him (and the war) is impressive. Politically, the President is in excellent shape for the time being.
2) However, the jury is still out for 2004 until it is determined whether the military victory actually results in getting the economy off dead center. We find considerable skepticism in the business community that it will have that effect.
3) Although Bush rises in popular esteem, it does not translate to automatic backing on Capitol Hill-a phenomenon that plagued previous American war presidents.
4) Indeed, with the President preoccupied by the war, the lawmakers tend to seize the opportunity to go their own way-as in loading the supplemental appropriations bill with additional highway money.
5) On the budget, the four recalcitrant Republican Senators were brought to the White House last week to be lobbied personally by Bush-to absolutely no avail.
Democratic:
The successful prosecution of the war further muddies the confused contest for the 2004 presidential nomination.
1) The party is seriously divided on the war, and there is no attempt to hide this. Opposition to the war at this point is a minority position, but the anti-war faction dominates Democratic activists.
2) Sen. John Kerry (Mass.), the putative front-runner (though not by much), did himself no good by publicly repeating the Democratic mantra that a regime change is needed in Washington as well as Baghdad. It was an inappropriate formulation once the shooting started in Iraq, and showed a surprisingly tin ear on Kerry's part. It also earned him criticism from the leading anti-war candidate, former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean, for trying to have it both ways-supporting the war but separating himself from Bush's war leadership.
3) In contrast, Rep. Richard Gephardt (Mo.) has handled himself well, taking his lumps from anti-war Democrats and weathering the storm. The question remains whether his position will undermine his absolute necessity to finish first in the Iowa caucuses.
Airline Bailout:
Republicans in both chambers have loaded up the war supplemental bill with over $3 billion in aid to airlines. House conservatives are pitted against leadership in their effort to kill this bailout.
1) These bills cover the 9/11 security fees and provide other aid. Appropriations Chairman Bill Young (R.-Fla.) inserted the bailout at the direction of Speaker Dennis Hastert (R-Ill.).
2) Conservative GOP backbenchers are agitating against this bailout, but Majority Leader Tom DeLay (R.-Tex.) has been quiet on the matter. While DeLay is the real power-broker in the House, he has yet to buck the Speaker anytime Hastert has been out in front on an issue.
3) The conservative Republican Study Committee is fighting to kill this provision, but their odds are not good.
4) In both chambers, the bill would prevent airlines from giving their executives pay raises, a provision that may dampen industry support for the legislation.
