Democratic Presidential:
The expanding field is troubled by two factors: a) the lack of a potentially charismatic candidate (such as John F. Kennedy in '60 and Bill Clinton in '92) and b) the party's big division on the war.
1) Last weekend's cattle call at the Democratic National Committee (DNC) winter meeting reflected these problems. The most charismatic candidate was former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean, running to the left (calling himself "the candidate of the Democratic wing of the Democratic Party"), but still not considered a serious contender.
2) Not only Dean but the two new left-of-center candidates-Rep. Dennis Kucinich (Ohio) and former Sen. Carol Moseley-Braun (Ill.)-got warmer receptions from the DNC members than the established candidates. Dean attacked candidates who had voted in Congress for the war resolution, and they seemed apologetic about it. The realistic Democratic hope is to get this war over with quickly.
3) Sen. Joe Lieberman (Conn.), leading in most polls though with less than 20% in all of them, bombed at the DNC with a lackluster performance. Sen. John Edwards (N.C.), still regarded by many insiders as a potentially charismatic candidate, showed once again he does not come over well from the formal speaker's podium.
4) Rep. Richard Gephardt (Mo.), who last ran for president in '88 and has been written off by the news media as a candidate of the past, has been more effective than Lieberman and Edwards and was well received at the DNC, not withstanding his pro-war posture. Considering the electoral map, Gephardt may be the Democrats' best shot in '04. However, the Missouri state legislature, dominated by Republicans, is working to push back the presidential primary from its early slot (February 3) in order to derail Gephardt's chances.
5) Sen. ohn Kerry (Mass.), recovering from prostate surgery, is viewed as the real front-runner in much of the party (and is tentatively considered the strongest Democratic challenger by the White House). Sen. Bob Graham (Fla.), recovering from heart surgery, is a serious public servant who is moderate domestically and anti-war.
Louisiana Governor:
Louisiana's unique election laws, confusing party situation, and odd recent past make for a wild race to replace term-limited Gov. Mike Foster (R.).
The October "jungle primary" will feature about a dozen candidates, from both parties, and-unless one gets a majority-the top two finishers (regardless of party) will go to a runoff in November. Right now, the only near-certainty is that the race will be settled in a runoff.
If there is a frontrunner it is Atty. Gen. Richard Ieyoub (D.). He has money, has been elected statewide, and is fairly popular with the trial lawyers. Unless his penchant for finding trouble flares up, Ieyoub has the best chance of any candidate to make the runoff.
Another statewide Democrat in contention is Lt. Gov. Kathleen Blanco (D.). As L.G., she has been mostly in charge of tourism, and so is receiving some free media attention on the 200th anniversary of the Louisiana Purchase. Louisiana voters, however, have not elected an L.G. to the top job in nearly 100 years.
Treasurer John Kennedy (D.) combines his statewide post with a record of winning black votes. However, it is not clear he will have the backing of State Sen. Cleo Fields (D.)-essential to his popularity with blacks in the past. Also, Kennedy will be fighting for the "good government" vote (not a large constituency to be begin with among Democrats in Louisiana) with former State Senate President Randy Ewing (D.). Ewing's main advantage is being one of a few candidates to come from the northern part of the state.
Former Rep. Buddy Leach (D.) has already spent $1 million, but much of that may simply be filling the pockets of consultants
State Rep. Hunt Downer (R.) is the early frontrunner for the Republicans. A former House Speaker when he was a Democrat, Downer will do very well with the Cajun vote.
Former Gov. Dave Treen (R.) is well-known and well-liked, but has never been too politically savvy. He hasn't raised enough cash yet, but his name, in this crowded field, might be enough to push him into the top two. State Senate President John Hainkel (R.) also has an impressive resume, but may too be unpolished to win statewide.
While Public Service Commissioner Jay Blossman (R.) lacks name ID, he may have the most access to cash of any Republicans. Also, he is the early favorite of the angry conservative crowd displeased with Foster. He may be among the first to drop out, however.
State Sen. Ken Hollis (R.) and former State Legislative Auditor Dan Kyle (R.) are also in the race, but could withdraw.
