State of the Union Analysis:
President George W. Bush's State of the Union Address Tuesday was an effort to broadcast an image of compassion while also spelling out the case for war with Iraq. Bush also made several specific domestic policy requests, giving Congress-now fully under Republican control-more guidance than he has to date in his presidency.
1) Just as he did last year, Bush gave specifics regarding the multi-front war on terrorism and "outlaw regimes." His speech attempted to show a continuum between al Qaeda, Iraq, Iran and North Korea.
2) On domestic policy, Bush was bolder this year, calling for specific legislation in a fair amount of detail. Last year, while the Democrats controlled the Senate, he was not in a position to do this. Focusing mainly on his tax cut proposal, Bush hoped to rally public support around some measures he feels he must add to his record before the 2004 election.
3) Bush unexpectedly dwelt on a need for compassion for AIDS victims, drug addicts and the underprivileged. In both his tone of voice and the content of much of his speech, Bush emphasized compassion, evoking memories of Bill Clinton's tendency to talk tough and conservative in his State of the Union addresses.
Domestic Agenda:
President Bush used the first half of the speech to call for specific policies-both as an effort to spur the passage of some legislation, and as encouragement to his conservative base.
1) He brought up his tax cut package in the context of economic growth, but advocated its provisions on the grounds of fairness and relief for working families. He called for speeding up and making permanent the rate reductions, marriage penalty relief and expansion of the child tax credit to $1,000. For fairness's sake and attempting to invigorate investment, Bush asked Congress to end the double-taxation of dividends.
2) However, after the speech, the comments of senators made it clear the plan could not pass as proposed. Specifically, Sen. John Breaux (D.-La.) said the dividend tax cut would reduce revenue by too much. Conversations with moderate senators suggest Bush will need to limit the impact of the dividend provision - merely cutting the tax on dividend income and not entirely eliminating it.
3) On health care, Bush went into far less detail. He had to address the topic, and he promised $400 billion "to reform and strengthen Medicare," but did not suggest how. He is largely leaving the ball in the Congress's court on this matter. The closest he came to a policy recommendation on this issue was a call for medical tort reform.
4) Democrats feel they can win if they can highlight the differences between the Republican and the Democratic health care strategies. But they were unwilling to touch the tort reform question raised by Bush, which suggests the party is cowed on this matter so crucial to its trial lawyer base.
5) Bush tried to pair energy independence with environmental protection. Naming his "Clear Skies" pollutant bill and "Healthy Forest" bill, Bush made the case that he has acted on the environment. He also proposed funding for hydrogen-powered cars-just one of the proposals that won bipartisan applause but worried those lawmakers concerned with keeping spending down.
6) Playing on his rhetorical strength-coming across as caring-Bush dedicated a few minutes to talking about compassion. Using the faith-based initiative and the Citizen Service Act as legislative centerpieces, Bush, spoke at length about mentoring and volunteering.
7) Bush did not mention abortion or cloning at all in 2002, and so his outright calls for banning cloning and partial-birth abortion pleased his pro-life base. It also gives ammunition to the Republican lawmakers trying to persuade their skeptical colleagues on the issue. Bush dedicated far less time to these issues than to others, and his language was less than firm (speaking about the hour of a child's birth rather than conception, one conservative pointed out). This is because these legislative battles are very winnable, and Bush wishes to avoid introducing more divisive aspects of the issue into these debates.
8) Most conservatives, however, consider the front line in the abortion battle to be the courts. Bush surprised some by not calling for action on his judges, despite the threat of a Democratic filibuster.
9) Bush mentioned private accounts for Social Security, but this idea will not even get off the ground in the 108th Congress. This was mostly for the sake of keeping the concept alive.
10) Republican unease flows from trying to abide by the President's plea for keeping spending down while also funding the billions of dollars in new programs he proposed in the speech.
