Frist:
Replacing Sen. Trent Lott (R.-Miss.) with Sen. Bill Frist (R.-Tenn.) was necessary, especially after President George W. Bush refused to defend him, but it raises some concerns and hopes.
1) Frist is very new to politics, beginning just his ninth year in Washington. Offsetting that negative is Frist’s intelligence-a highly successful heart surgeon who is capable of adapting fairly quickly to the backbreaking minutiae and heavy lifting of running the Senate.
2) Some Republicans were made uneasy by Frist’s melodramatic impromptu speech following his unanimous election. Frist compared his new job to his old job as a heart surgeon-leading some to infer Frist sees the GOP in need of a heart transplant. It is unclear what this could mean, but it has Republicans worried.
3) The most prevalent complaint among his colleagues is that Frist will be an agent of the White House. The idea of a Majority Leader working as Bush’s man in the upper chamber does not sit well with many Senators, who are notoriously jealous of their prerogatives.
4) Also, with the House now completely under the dominion of Majority Leader Tom DeLay (R.-Tex.), both chambers may be led by men who see their role as implementing Bush’s agenda. If Republicans appear too monolithic in their control of the White House and the Capitol, it could give fodder to Democrats in 2004. If voters do, in fact, tend towards divided government, a unified GOP front could spell disaster in two years.
5) Finally, some social conservatives are unhappy with Frist. The Senate’s sole physician, Frist disappointed pro-lifers in 2001 when he came out in favor of using federal funds to conduct experiments on stem cells from embryonic humans.
Lott:
Lott, in the end, had to step down. But the decision not to run again for the leader job has mixed consequences.
1) Lott as Majority Leader would have been far too distracting for any serious business to get done in the Senate. But his replacement with Frist far from inoculates the GOP from charges of racism. The official Democratic line now is that Lott has been outed as a closet racist, but he is not alone in the Republican Party. Lott, by stepping down, confirms in some eyes, that he held segregationist feelings deep inside.
2) Democrats are already charging that a wide range of Republican policies-ranging from opposition to affirmative action to limiting federal power vis-a-vis the states to support of tax cuts-are really driven by racism. Lott’s resignation as Leader only encourages such attacks.
3) The White House’s role in driving Lott out, which manifested itself in Bush’s refusal to publicly defend the man from the overreacting liberal and conservative press, provides another example of the Bush Administration’s awesome control of the Republican Party.
Daschle:
There is renewed suspicion in South Dakota that Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle (D.-S.D.) may run for the White House in 2004.
1) It is clear Daschle has not made up his mind, and will not for a few more weeks. By the end of the January, however, he should announce his intentions for 2004, when his current Senate term expires.
2) It seems increasingly likely that Daschle will not run for reelection to the Senate. After spending 19 months as Majority Leader, he has little taste for serving more than two more years as Minority Leader. Democrats agree that the odds are slim they will regain the Senate in 2004, meaning Daschle would not have a shot at the top spot for at least another four years-possibly more.
3) One major factor playing behind the scenes is the fear of his wife Linda Daschle that her lobbying activities will be dragged into the spotlight. Since her husband took the Majority Leader spot, she has fiercely ramped up her lobbying on Capitol Hill (House side only) for big clients such as Boeing.
4) A serious GOP run for this seat in 2004 is almost guaranteed. South Dakota sources tell us of an RNC-commissioned poll showing outgoing Rep. John Thune (R.-S.D.) trailing Daschle by only one point. The poll also reportedly shows Thune leading outgoing Gov. and Rep.-elect Bill Janklow handsomely.
5) While Iowa sources still indicate they see little movement by Daschle on the Presidential front, there is still speculation in South Dakota that he is flirting with the idea. The argument is that Daschle would not need to lay the early groundwork in Iowa that the East Coast competitors do.
6) Still, in the final calculation, the smart money is on Daschle’s quitting politics next year.
