Lameduck Session:
The post-election session has turned out to be longer, more productive and more significant than anybody thought likely.
1) Republican leaders in both the Senate and House-especially Sen. Trent Lott (Miss.)-were determined to pass a Continuing Resolution financing the government into mid-January, and then adjourn. But President George W. Bush insisted on passage of the two measures that, during the mid-term campaign, he had chided the Democratic-controlled Senate for stalling: homeland security and terrorism insurance.
2) The trial lawyers had blocked terrorism insurance on the issue of punitive damages, and White House lobbyist Nick Calio cut a deal with Democratic leaders that pretty well gave away the store to the trial lawyers. House Majority Whip Tom DeLay (R.-Tex.) was particularly opposed, but Bush prevailed on him to accept the compromise.
3) Homeland security proved as difficult as Lott predicted, even though Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle (D.-S.D.) capitulated and abandon government workers’ demands for employees rights. It was the trial lawyers again who objected to House-passed provisions protecting pharmaceutical manufacturers from lawsuits. Last week, Senate Republicans cleared Daschle’s legislative hurdles with the vote of Landrieu.
4) President Bush appeared to be empowered by his mid-term election victories, no longer the junior partner or the new boy in dealing with GOP leaders on the Hill. The question is whether he will use his authority in the 108th Congress to press for Social Security and tax reform.
5) The downside of the lameduck experience was Bush’s capitulation on terrorism insurance, recalling his first-year performance on the education bill.
Committee Chairmen:
Republican takeover of the Senate and retiring GOP lawmakers shake up the picture for committee chairmen in the 108th Congress.
1) Conservative Sen. Jim Inhofe (R.-Okla.) will be a lightning rod for liberal attacks in his new post atop the Environment and Public Works Committee. Sen. Jim Jeffords (I.-Vt.) bolted the GOP to take this chairmanship after Sen. Bob Smith (R.-N.H.) rejoined the Republicans in 1999 to gain the same prize. The shift in tone on this committee will be stark. Inhofe may push for some reforms in the wasteful Army Corps of Engineers.
2) Energy Committee Chairman Sen. Frank Murkowski (R.-Alaska) is retiring to assume the governorship of his state, and Sen. Pete Domenici (R.-N.M.) will replace him on Energy. While Domenici supports drilling in ANWR, he may be less insistent on it than was Murkowski. Also, Domenici, in hammering out an energy bill, will likely not accept a natural gas pipeline as a payoff like Murkowski did.
3) Some Republicans worry what Sen. John McCain (R.-Ariz.) will do when he resumes the chairmanship of the Commerce and Transportation committee. McCain cut many deals with Democrats in the past few years that have upset leadership and the White House.
4) In the House, Rep. Duncan Hunter (R.-Calif.) will replace Rep. Bob Stump (R.-Ariz.) atop the Armed Services Committee and that panel will have a very different feel. Hunter will be much more aggressive than was Stump, and should push missile defense unless the White House asks him not to. The Senate Armed Services Committee, chaired once again by Sen. John Warner (R.-Va.), will be less ardent on the matter, but likely not opposed.
5) The ugliest battle for a chairmanship may be the fight for the Government Reform gavel. The top senior eligible Republican is Rep. Chris Shays (R.-Conn.), but he angered leadership by pushing the discharge petition on his campaign finance bill. The next Republican is Rep. Chris Cox (R.-Calif.), who has been on leave from the panel. The leading contender, however is Rep. Tom Davis (R.-Va.), whose candidacy is boosted by his successful term as chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee. Davis would be far less prosecutorial than the outgoing chairman, Rep. Dan Burton (R.-Ind.), or than either Cox or Shays.
Economic Team:
A new Bush economic team appears likely in the foreseeable future.
1) National Economic Director Lawrence Lindsey’s days appear to be numbered. He has lost the high favor he had with Bush during the 2000 campaign and is regarded as ineffective in coordinating economic policy.
2) However, Lindsey is not the problem. It is Treasury Secretary Paul O’Neill, who often gives the impression he is not that supportive of Bush tax cuts and makes clear he doesn’t think he can do much to alter economic developments. Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney (who was instrumental in picking O’Neill) have been resistant to criticism of him, but that may be changing. O’Neill appears likely to leave in the relatively near future.
