Elections:
Going into the last week of the campaign, the Democrats are frustrated and the Republicans are apprehensive.
1) The Democratic frustration stems from their inability to "nationalize" the election. Unable all year to accomplish it, it is not likely to happen in the final week. They are still trying to "Enronize" the economic issue, but that simply hasn’t happened.
2) The Republican apprehension stems from so many close races for the Senate and Governor. If all the cards break wrong for the GOP on election night, it could yield major Democratic gains even without nationalization.
3) On the other hand, President George W. Bush has not been successful in making the war on terrorism a defining issue. Nearly all Democrats in competitive races have supported the Iraq resolution, and the Senate failure to pass the Homeland Security bill has not had much national resonance.
4) The candidate change in Minnesota, coming on the heels of the change in New Jersey, probably eliminates two possible Republican pickups in the tight battle for Senate control.
5) Democrats are determined to stick it to President Bush by defeating his brother, Gov. Jeb Bush (R.), in Florida with lawyer Bill McBride (D.). Personnel and money are being poured into the state, but Bush still leads.
Wellstone’s Death:
Sen. Paul Wellstone’s (D.) death in a plane crash Friday shook Washington and Minnesota, both places where he was well-loved and admired. The political fallout of the death is still developing.
1) The pick by state Democrats to replace Wellstone on the ballot (Minnesota law is unambiguous in allowing this) is former Vice President and Sen. Walter Mondale (D.). Mondale is popular, and he benefits from the Wellstone sympathy and mourning factor-but a Republican poll shows him with only a 2-point lead.
2) While not outright campaigning yet, former St. Paul Mayor Norm Coleman (R.) has not become invisible, and tomorrow he will begin his brief campaign in earnest. He may not have enough time, and Mondale may try to avoid debates. We had put Wellstone ahead before his death, and so Mondale’s lead does not change our Senate count.
3) Wellstone’s death could aid Democrats throughout the state, giving Gubernatorial candidate Roger Moe (D.) a small boost and perhaps saving Rep. Bill Luther (D.) from defeat.
Colorado:
Polls here are now consistently showing a dead heat or slim GOP lead in the battle between Sen. Wayne Allard (R.) and former U.S. Atty. Tom Strickland (D.). Some polls show Allard down below 40%-a sign that almost always indicates defeat for incumbents.
However, in this race, the incumbent-challenger dynamics are different. Strickland came into this race with a higher name ID than did Allard-Allard was a low-key Senator and Strickland a high-profile prosecutor. This means Strickland does not stand to pick up the last-minute undecideds that the challenger usually wins.
Strickland’s supporters are Democrats and people turned off from Allard during the negative campaign. Allard’s 40% comes from the right wing and dedicated partisans in the growing population of Colorado Republicans. With low turnout expected (the Governor’s race is not close) Allard’s support is stronger, and that should make the difference. Leaning Republican Retention.
New Hampshire:
Senate control still hinges on a handful of races, but it appears Republicans will win enough to take back the Senate now that Gov. Jeanne Shaheen (D) seems to have lost momentum in New Hampshire.
One of the toughest races to call, this contest has swung back and forth all along. Internal GOP numbers now show a slim lead for Rep. John Sununu (R.), a change from earlier this month.
Now that it appears Shaheen has lost her momentum, she needs many factors to fall into place. She needs a sizable write-in campaign for Sen. Bob Smith (R.) to draw away from Sununu’s conservative voters. Smith is not going to bat for Sununu (he declined to fly with the President to New Hampshire last week-a clear snub), but it is unlikely many conservative voters will stay at home this Election Day with a pro-income tax Democrat running for Governor.
Shaheen also needs a large majority of the independent vote and near unanimous support from her party. Getting both will be difficult, considering her less-than-stellar record as Governor, which Sununu is just now beginning to highlight.
This seat, and control of the U.S. Senate, has edged back into the Republican column. Leaning Republican Retention.
